The Fed and Tomorrow's CPI Are In Focus

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Our View

It's not just the clamor over the September 25 bps rate cut — now some are saying the Fed should do an emergency 50 bps rate cut.

There is a story out there that Wednesday's CPI number is going to be a total disaster and show a big jump in inflation and that there will not be any rate cuts in 2024. After looking at how far the Fed is behind the 8-ball, I gave in to the idea of a September rate cut. But after the July jobs report I think the landscape has changed. 

Do I think the Fed will continue on its rate-cut path even if the CPI reports a jump in inflation? I do and what's crazier is they probably will back it up with another rate cut before the end of the year. 

There are not many times that I can say this, but I can feel people are stressed out — the markets, Ukraine, the election and the Fed just to name a few. One thing we know for sure is Wednesday is going to see a big jump in volatility.