Fed Speak this Afternoon. Waiting for CPI numbers this week.

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Our View

I admit I don't know enough about how economic reports get leaked, but I'm confident they do—especially when it comes to the most important economic indicator in the US: the monthly jobs report. If you don’t believe it, then how the hell did the Bureau of Labor Statistics make one-third, or 818,000 jobs, just disappear? No one ever really explained that, and no one will explain how all the major banks were expecting 140k nonfarm payroll for the September jobs report.

And what happens? Nonfarm payrolls increased by 254,000 jobs last month, revised up by 17k in August, and then by another 55k—the most since March. Coincidence? Or just another sign that the economy is humming along? Well, we’ll know a little more about that when the CPI number is released on Thursday.