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Fed Speak, Beige Book, GDP Now. Should be an active day
Danny Riley
January 17, 2024
Our View
Let's say it like it is, the futures index markets are coming off their 10th positive week in 11. The Dow and S&P 500 gained 0.3% and 1.8%, respectively, last week and the Nasdaq closed up 3% for its biggest weekly gain since November. Plain and simple, the ES and NQ got spooked by higher rates and the threat of a larger war in the Middle East. I really believe 2024 is going to be a year of extreme moves. Am I still bullish? Like I said yesterday, the ES has made several attempts to take out 4840 and runs out of gas every time. Rejections are not bullish but maybe the ES just needs to come down a bit, find its footing, and go back up. But I also think Iran has been waiting for years for the US to step into a war with one or more of its proxies. They have not been chanting 'death to Israel and the US’ for nothing and they are also setting up camp in S. America. I have always said the next war the US gets into will be the Middle East and don't be surprised when you wake up and the US is in full battle mode. In addition, the fact that it is an election year and the Fed's BS about lowering rates 6 times this year have also thrown a shadow of doubt over the markets. Yesterday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said that interest rate cuts are likely this year, but also said that the central bank can take its time relaxing monetary policy. Like I said above, get ready for a big year of rip-your-face rallies and plunges.
Handelstats Levels
$ES Currently trading 4778.50. Upside: Trade and hourly close above 4780.75 targets 4785.12 then 4789.50, hourly close above there targets 4795.12 then Settlement 4798.75. Hourly close above there targets 4803, hourly close above there targets 4809.50, hourly close above there targets 4826 and +1sd 4827.84.
Hourly close above there targets 4835.25, 4837, 4838.75, 4841.25. Hourly close above 4841.24 targets +2sd 4856.92.
Downside: Hourly close below 4780.75 targets -1 sd 4769.66. Hourly close below there targets 4764.25, hourly close below there targets 4757.88 then -1sd weekly level 4755.36. Hourly close below there targets 4749.50, hourly close below there targets -2sd 4740.58. Hourly close below there targets 4735.25 then 4732.50. More in review.