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Our View

The ES made a high of 6696.75 on Globex and opened the regular session at 6685.00. It traded up to 6688.25 and then sold off all the way down to 6661.50 at 11:39. From there, it rallied up to 6673.75 at 1:21—just below the VWAP at 6674.50—then pulled back to 6668.25 before bouncing back up to the 6673.75 level at 1:21.

The ES then entered a back-and-fill pattern, mostly trading between 6668.00 and 6672.00. It finally caught a bid and ran some buy stops up to 6676.75 at 2:50, made a few lower highs, and then sold off down to the 6666.00 level. It rallied back up to another lower high at 6675.75 at 3:48, just before the NYSE imbalance came out showing $3.5 billion to sell. It then sold off to 6665.75 at 3:58, traded 6668.25 on the 4:00 cash close, and settled at 6667.50, down 11.75 points or -0.18%.

The NQ settled at 24,522.25, down 28.5 points or -0.12% on the day.
The yield on the 10-year note closed mainly steady at 4.025%.

In the end, there was a very low level of outright trading. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, most of the volume came from the ESM/ESZ spread. If you take the 777k ESU and subtract the 1.512 million ESZ, that comes out to 735k—not including removing the 75k ESZ traded on Globex—which brings total ESZ volume down to 660k contracts traded.

I think 60% of the ESM/ESZ roll was done on Monday, and when you add in yesterday’s rolls, I suspect there's only about 20% left to roll.

On Tap

Today's Fed-filled economic calendar starts out with Housing Starts and Building Permits at 8:30. Day two of the Fed meeting includes the rate decision at 2:00 and Powell’s press conference at 2:30.

JPMorgan strategists noted that a rate cut could lead to increased volatility and a temporary shift to caution in the stock market as investors re-evaluate their positions, and I agree.

As we move into today’s Fed meeting and face the scary September Triple Witching, and after seeing some large sell imbalances over the past few days, I think there’s reason to be concerned.

Our View

Going into today, BofA reports: "Fund Managers Most Bullish Since February."

I think there is a lot of risk out there, and one place it continues to show up is gold, which just set another record above $3,688 an ounce. Gold is now up a whopping 40% in 2025 and on track for its best performance since 1979. This can't be a good sign for the dollar—or stagflation.

While no one knows for sure what's going to happen today, or in the ES and NQ over the next few days, I think there's a very high level of complacency.

When you look at ES net changes:

• The last time the ES rallied over 1% (1.07%) was on 8/12/25.

• The last time it dropped over 1% (-1.77%) was on 8/01/25.

Something has to give.

According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac:

• In the monthly expiration week of 2001, the Dow lost 1370 points or -14.3%, the 4th worst weekly point loss and 6th worst week overall.

• September Quad Witching: The Dow was up 11 of the last 20, but down 9 of the last 12. I see no reason why it won’t end up down 10 of the last 13.

• Week after September Quad Witching: Dow was down 26 of the last 34 with an average loss of 1.1% since 1990.

• The end of September tends to be weak due to Q3 institutional portfolio restructuring.

• On the last trading day of Q3, the S&P dropped in 18 of the last 27 years but was up in 5 of the last 9, a big rebalancing day and the JP Morgan put roll.

JP Morgan

Equity Strategy

Fed playbook update; reiterate bullish EM view

• The Fed is set to resume cutting this week, with futures pricing in 26bp of easing. We refresh the findings of our June and August reports with respect to implications for the markets. We were highlighting that bond yields tended tomove lower into the easing, and keep moving down post the resumption of easing. We keep our long duration call. USD tended to be softer into, and after, the resumption of easing. We think that the July-Aug stabilization in USD might not last, and could give way to more weakness down the line, our FX team has DXY falling 4-5% over the next 6 months. As the top chart shows, USD is far from trading cheap; in fact, it is above where the fundamentals would suggest, and the real interest rate differential is breaking lower.

• With respect to equities, overall indices historically have tended to consolidate as the Fed resumed easing, stalling for a few months, and would advance thereafter. In contrast, investors appear to be using the upcoming easing as a reason to look through the current labour market soft patch, with the US market hovering at highs, but the risk is that this changes. Once the easing resumes, equities could turn more cautious for a bit, and price in some more downside risk, in effect repricing the current, potentially complacent, stance.

• In terms of internal leadership, historically it was bond proxies that outperformed in the months after Fed resumed easing, such as Utilities and Healthcare, at the expense of Banks in particular, but Industrials also tended to lag. We have been highlighting during the summer that the gap has opened up between the relative performance of Cyclicals vs Defensive sectors and bond yields. Over the past 6 weeks, Cyclicals have lost some steam in Europe, and have stalled in the US, but the gaps are still open, and that would be especially so if bond yields were to move further lower. Typically, after the initial 1-3 months of low beta outperformance as the Fed resumes easing, we note that Cyclicals would start leading again.

• We reiterate our bullish view on EM, which we think will benefit from the backdrop in which the Fed is easing, EM central banks are easing, and USD is generally trading light. As the middle chart shows, EM equities tended to perform better as Fed cuts resumed. At the end of July we revisited the attractiveness of EM space, and China is an important element of this. We note that China equities, both A and H shares, are making fresh highs, up 15% and 33% ytd, respectively. While we have been bearish on EM&China for years, one of the reasons behind us turning positive on EM this year was the more constructive policy stance, both fiscal as well as in terms of liquidity.

• Mining is a sector which is related to the EM/China view, as well as to our USD view. We double upgraded it earlier in the year, after a prolonged bearish stance. As the bottom chart shows, Mining equities are continuing to show a gap with the spot metal prices. Like gold equities, which have rallied as spot rallied, we believe Miners will perform better, too.

Guest Posts — Polaris Trading Group

Prior Session was Cycle Day 1: As expected, price did spill-over to higher prices achieving the Money Box Zone as well as the CD1 Penetration Level before reversing direction lower.

The Cycle Low was established at 6661.25 and will be used to measure the performance of this cycle’s potential.

Most of the session’s range was established during the morning session, as the afternoon period offered traders little rhythmic opportunity. As is the case daily, Market on Close (MOC) provided only the nimblest of traders scalping opportunities.

Range was 35 handles on 961k contracts exchanged

For a more detailed recap of the trading session, click on this link: Trading Room RECAP 9.16.25

…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2

Transition into Cycle Day 2: Normally for CD2 we are anticipating some consolidation MATD rhythms to begin the session, although today could be quite different with impactful volatility.

Market reaction could be wide and varied during the press conference, so Stay Calm and Manage Risk aggressively.

Here’s a preview of what to expect from the Fed’s FOMC decision & press conference on September 17, 2025 — what the markets are broadly expecting, key points to watch, and possible risks. 

What’s Widely Anticipated

1. Rate cut of 25 basis points
   Almost all forecasters think the Fed will cut the federal funds rate by 0.25% (25 bps), bringing it into the ~4.00–4.25% range. NDTV Profit+4Investopedia+4Saxo Bank+4

2. First cut since December 2024
   This will likely mark the end of a steady period of rate stability. Investopedia+2Bankrate+2

3. Dot Plot & Economic Projections

   • The Fed will release its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), including the dot plot — what members expect rates will be in future meetings. Market News+2EY+2

   • Key questions: How many further cuts in 2025 do members expect? Two seems to be the consensus among many analysts. Market News+2Saxo Bank+2

   • Inflation and GDP projections will also be watched, especially whether inflation remains sticky and how much growth is revised down. EY+1

4. Labor market developments
   The Fed is increasingly concerned about softening in labor: rising unemployment, weakening hiring, jobs growth slowing. The statement is likely to reflect this more than in prior meetings. Market News+2Bankrate+2

5. Language on inflation vs employment
   Since inflation remains above target, but labor market risks are rising, the Fed is expected to maintain that future moves are “data-dependent.” They’ll likely tug between signaling caution about inflation and concern about labor weakness. EY+2Saxo Bank+2

6. Probability of dissent
   Given the trade-offs, there is a likelihood that at least one or a few FOMC members will dissent, either from those favoring a larger cut, or those more reluctant to ease given inflation risks. Saxo Bank+1

What the Press Conference / Powell Could Emphasize

• Powell is expected to revisit themes from his Jackson Hole speech: that risks have shifted, labor market softening is “unmistakable,” and the Fed may need to adjust its stance. EY+1

• He may caution that although inflation is coming down, certain components (e.g. shelter, services) remain elevated. EY+1

• He’ll likely push back against any notion that cuts are on autopilot; he’ll stress that upcoming decisions are highly dependent on the incoming data. IG+1

• Questions may arise about Fed independence (given political pressures) and how those pressures might (or might not) influence decisions. MarketWatch+1

Key Risks & What Could Surprise

Market Impacts & What Investors Are Watching

• Because the 25 bps cut is largely expected, market reaction will likely depend more on forward guidance — what the Fed says about future rate cuts, inflation, etc. MarketPulse+1

• Expect bond yields (especially short-term) and the dollar to be sensitive to how dovish vs hawkish the statement and dot plot appear.

• Equities and risk assets may rally on dovish language; if the Fed seems more cautious, risk-assets could pull back.

• Inflation expectations markets (e.g., TIPS) will be watching for any sign the Fed believes inflation may drift upward again (tariff impacts, shelter, wage pressures).
  

Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.

PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.

As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading. 

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 6675+-, initially targets 6685 – 6695 zone. 

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 6675+-, initially targets 6655 – 6650 zone.

Thanks for reading, PTGDavid

MiM and Daily Recap

The overnight Globex session opened at 6673.25 and climbed steadily through the early evening, printing a local high at 6678.50 by 19:20. A pullback to 6673.00 at 20:30 set the stage for a renewed rally. Buyers carried ES up to 6689.00 at 02:10, followed by a dip to 6682.75 at 03:00. Momentum reasserted itself with a push to the Globex high of 6696.75 at 04:40, before fading into the morning. A sequence of lower highs emerged, first at 6691.50 at 07:10, then 6688.25 at the 09:30 cash open.

The regular session opened at 6685.00 and could not sustain early bids. Sellers pressed the contract lower, reaching 6661.25 by 11:40, marking the day’s low. A midday recovery lifted prices to 6673.75 at 13:20, then on to 6676.25 by 14:50, but each rally attempt stalled below resistance. Another fade into the afternoon produced a lower high at 6675.75 at 15:50. The ES drifted back toward 6670 into the final hour, settling at 6668.25 for the regular close, down 16.75 points (-0.25%) from the open.

Cleanup trade added little to the day’s action, with ES closing the session at 6669.75, nearly unchanged from the cash close. Volume was strong at 961,555 contracts across all sessions, led by 807,898 in the regular session.

From a session-to-session perspective, the close from the previous cash close ($C–C) change showed an 11.50-point gain during Globex, but the regular session erased those overnight gains, finishing 11.50 points lower than the prior day’s cash close, a decline of -0.17%. The full day’s action netted a modest 3.50-point loss (-0.05%) from the open. 

Market tone leaned defensive despite the overnight strength. The Globex rally to 6696.75 failed to inspire follow-through during cash hours, and each intraday bounce was capped by lower highs, signaling persistent seller control. The MOC imbalance data showed a strong bullish skew, with $4.1B total and 86% on the buy side. Symbol imbalance registered at 73.8%, well above the 66% threshold, reflecting aggressive buy programs into the close. Despite this, the ES could not mount a late surge, underscoring the heavy supply overhead.

Sector breakdown revealed leadership from Communication Services (+99% buy), Technology (+96.9%), and Industrials (+79.4%). NVDA, META, and AAPL were among the largest net buys, while Energy (-76.3%) and Consumer names like NKE and PG showed notable selling pressure. This divergence highlighted rotation back into mega-cap tech and away from defensives and energy.

Overall, the market displayed a two-sided trade that ultimately leaned bearish in the cash session. While strong imbalance data hinted at institutional support, it was not sufficient to overcome the supply at higher levels. The inability to hold rallies suggests traders remain cautious ahead of the Fed’s policy announcement, with the ES closing slightly below yesterday’s settlement.

How to read the MIM

Technical Edge 

Fair Values for September 17, 2025:

• SP: 60.35

• NQ: 252.24

• Dow: 361.43

Daily Market Recap 📊

For Tuesday, September 16, 2025

• NYSE Breadth: 44.60% Upside Volume

• Nasdaq Breadth: 59.84% Upside Volume

• Total Breadth: 57.31% Upside Volume

• NYSE Advance/Decline: 46.03% Advance

• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 50.61% Advance

• Total Advance/Decline: 48.63% Advance

• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 121 / 32

• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 352 / 73

• NYSE TRIN: 0.91

• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.69

Weekly Market  📈

For the week ending Friday, September 12, 2025

• NYSE Breadth: 54.32% Upside Volume

• Nasdaq Breadth: 64.94% Upside Volume

• Total Breadth: 61.29% Upside Volume

• NYSE Advance/Decline: 56.16% Advance

• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 58.71% Advance

• Total Advance/Decline: 57.74% Advance

• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 360 / 71

• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 755 / 214

• NYSE TRIN: 1.08

• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.77

Calendars

Economic

Today

Important Upcoming / Recent

Earnings

Upcoming

Recent

Full Calendar

Trading Room Summaries

Polaris Trading Group Summary - Tuesday, September 16, 2025

Tuesday’s session was a classic Cycle Day 1 with a strong morning setup and waning momentum into the afternoon as the market entered "grind mode" ahead of the FOMC meeting.

Morning Setup & Execution Highlights

• Overnight Action:

  • Both ES and NQ fulfilled their upper D-Level Money Box Target Zones with ultra precision, showing strength right into the open.

  • @PTGDavid and Manny both emphasized this confluence early, setting the tone for an upside bias initially.

• Primary Trade Opportunity:

  • Buy-the-Dip and Reclaim Setups were the core of the day’s opportunity:

    • Buy-the-dip zone (ES 6664–6655) held well with a trigger on seller stall and higher low.

    • Reclaim Setup around 6663–6671.50 was called out multiple times by Manny, with tight stops and clean upside targets to 6690–6725.

    • These setups provided multiple reward-to-risk compliant entries—excellent trade structures.

• Momentum Confirmation:

  • Sharp "KABOOM" move noted by Manny shortly after 9:40 AM confirmed the upside momentum from the dip-buy zone.

  • CD1/S2L structure aligned perfectly with the expected pivot low around 10–10:45 AM, followed by a brief recovery.

Key Lessons & Concepts Reinforced

• The Power of Preparation:

  • Multiple participants, including @Manny and @PTGDavid, emphasized the importance of pre-market planning and systematic analysis (not just chasing signals).

  • Manny reminded traders: "Doing the work conditions the mindset."

• Respecting Structure:

  • Several references were made to the Money Box and Fib Cluster zones, which served as reliable areas for price reaction—both for resistance and support.

  • David coined the term "Goldilocks Money Box" today—just right, not too hot or cold, and perfect for setups.

• Discipline Wins:

  • Strong psychology reminders:

    • “No setup = NO TRADE.”

    • “You’re building a sample so probability can work.”

  • These reinforced professional trading behavior over emotional or forced trades.

Afternoon Session: Low Conviction

• As David predicted: “Take the afternoons off folks...NOTHING TO SEE HERE.”

• The market shifted into grind mode by early afternoon with chop setting in.

• The EOD "dump" was noted around 3:30 PM but was largely inconsequential without strong structure or volume.

Wrap-Up

• Positive Trading Opportunities: Morning buy-the-dip and reclaim trades worked well with clear entry/exit structures.

• Great Lessons: Reinforcement of preparation, mindset, and system-based trading.

• Caution into FOMC: Afternoon showed the classic pre-event drift—staying sidelined was the smart move.

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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.

Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!