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ES and NQ Extend Record Run Ahead of PPI and Earnings
Danny Riley
August 14, 2025
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Our View
The ES traded up to 6490 just before the 9:30 regular session open at 6491.50, dropped a few points, and then... did the double pump back up to 6502.50 at 10:00 a.m.
As that was happening, I lost on a few small shorts and then posted this in the MTS chat:
IMPRO : Dboy : (9:56:33 AM) : from 6495 the next 25 pts are lower
IMPRO : Dboy : (10:02:59 AM) : I think the double pump is real
IMPRO : Dboy : (10:03:26 AM) : the gap up sets up an early sell the rallies
That was the whole ball of wax. After the low, the ES bounced a few points and then back-and-filled. That’s when I posted this in the chat:
IMPRO : Dboy : (1:51:45 PM) : es is back and filling
IMPRO : Dboy : (1:52:42 PM) : lot of es buy imbalance between 6469.50 and 6472.50
IMPRO : Dboy : (1:53:41 PM) : paid 6473.25 on 1 es
I’m not going to do a play-by-play, and I’m not going to say this was an easy sale. But the ES sold off down to 6466.75 and then rallied up to 6491.00 after the MIM showed $1.7 billion to buy, and traded 6489.00 on the 4:00 cash close.
In the end, it was a big early pop and letdown. In terms of the ES's overall tone, it’s hard to say anything negative. In terms of the ES's overall trade, volume was low at 1.048 million contracts traded.
Today's economic calendar includes jobless claims and PPI, and Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speaks at 2:00.
Companies reporting earnings today include:
Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT), Deere & Company (DE), NetEase, Inc. (NTES), JD.com, Inc. (JD), Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST), Tapestry, Inc. (TPR), Amcor plc (AMCR), NICE Ltd. (NICE), Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK), and Vipshop Holdings Limited (VIPS).
MiM and Daily Recap
Intraday Recap
The overnight Globex session began with ES finding early support at 6464.00 at 18:16 before climbing steadily into a high of 6474.75 at 19:52. Sellers stepped in, pressing the market down to 6461.00 at 22:00, a decline of 13.75 points (-0.21%). A recovery lifted prices to 6471.00 by 00:48, but momentum quickly faded, leading to another dip to 6463.00 at 02:16. Buyers regained control, pushing the contract to 6482.25 at 04:32, followed by a minor pullback to 6477.50 at 05:04. A stronger rally emerged thereafter, with prices climbing to 6484.50 by 06:00, easing to 6478.7 at 06:40, and then surging to a session peak of 6493.50 just before the cash open.
The regular session opened at 6491.50 and initially tested higher levels, peaking at 6502.50 by 09:49, a 23.75-point gain (+0.37%) from a premarket low. Sellers then reversed the move sharply, driving ES to a low of 6470.50 at 11:12, a 32.00-point drop (-0.49%) from the high. A midday rebound to 6482.75 at 11:44 was short-lived, as prices rolled over to 6466.75 at 12:48. Another rally attempt carried ES to 6477.75 by 13:28 before slipping back to 6467.75 at 13:36. The afternoon session saw a strong advance, hitting 6493.25 at 16:00. ES settled the regular session at 6489.00, down 2.50 points (-0.04%) from the open but up 21.50 points (+0.33%) from the prior close.
Volume came in at 857,909 contracts for the regular session, with total market participation reaching 1,056,829 contracts across all sessions.
Market tone was mixed, with bullish energy in the morning and late afternoon offset by notable midday weakness. The overnight Globex trade set a firm upward bias into the open, but intraday follow-through was choppy. Price action reflected an ongoing battle between buyers defending dips and sellers capping rallies.
The Market-on-Close (MOC) imbalance data showed $1.626B in total imbalances, with 63.7% on the buy side and a symbol imbalance reading of 52.1%, which did not breach the notable ±66% threshold. The moderate buy imbalance appeared to help steady prices into the close, preventing a deeper fade after the late-day high.
Overall, the day closed with a modest full-session gain of 16.00 points (+0.25%), reflecting resilience in the face of intraday volatility. Traders will likely monitor whether the inability to hold gains above the 6500 handle signals short-term resistance or simply a consolidation before another push higher.
Guest Posts:
Dan @ GTC Traders
Just Do It
Despite the title of this post, 'Just Do It' does not mean we are giving investment advice. Instead, it is commentary on many retail traders inability to stick to a given strategy. For some reason, despite being handed a profitable strategy with a proven history? They feel some pull ... some draw ... some inexplicable need, to change it.
It’s a curious phenomenon. You hand someone a roadmap that’s been battle-tested over years … through bull runs, bear traps, and everything in between … and what do they do? They start tweaking. Adjusting parameters here, adding a filter there, chasing the illusion that a little personalization will turn good into great. Or worse, they abandon it altogether at the first sign of a drawdown, convinced that something shinier must be out there. I’ve seen it time and again in my years covering markets, from the shipping lanes of the 2000s to the quantitative desks of today.
It’s not a lack of intelligence; it’s a lack of discipline. The human ego whispering that you can outsmart the system, even when the system was built to outsmart the noise.
Jim Simons of Renaissance Technologies is attributed as saying that he could publish his trading strategies in the Wall Street Journal without worrying, because most traders wouldn't have the discipline to execute them properly.
Think about that for a moment. Simons, the quant pioneer whose Medallion Fund delivered returns that defy gravity, wasn’t guarding his edge with secrecy alone. He knew the real barrier wasn’t access. It was, and is ... execution. Publishing the blueprint wouldn’t matter because the vast majority would second-guess it, overcomplicate it, or bail when the going got routine.
Discipline isn’t flashy; it’s the quiet grind of showing up every day, following the rules without deviation, even when boredom sets in or the market tempts you with a “better” idea. It’s the difference between those who survive the long game and those who flame out chasing mirages.
So the title of this article is more of an urge and reminder to the new and aspiring traders among us, that if you do have a profitable trading strategy? It's up to you to do one of the most difficult aspects of this job ...
Just Do It.
Let’s bring this home with a poker analogy, because trading, at its core, is a game of probabilities and patience. Imagine you’re at the table with a solid hand. A pocket pair that’s statistically favored. The strategy is clear: bet steadily, manage your chips, don’t bluff into oblivion.
But then doubt creeps in.
You start overbetting to “maximize,” or folding prematurely because the flop didn’t sparkle. Suddenly, you’re not playing the odds; you’re playing your impulses. The same holds in trading.
A proven strategy is your pocket pair? Robust, tested, with positive expectancy over time. But if you can’t resist the urge to tweak it mid-hand, you’re sabotaging your own stack. Discipline means trusting the process, even when it feels unglamorous. It means resisting the siren call of method-hunting, where you hop from one system to the next, never letting any one compound its edge.
And here’s where it gets real for us at GTC Traders. We’re living the truth of Jim Simons’ words every day. We have shared a strategy, developed specifically for Premium Members of GTC Traders. The Quad Program. We are demonstrating live in the Short-Term Trading Account portion of the Sample Portfolio. This isn’t some backtested fantasy; it’s a robust, multi-regime program built on multiple four uncorrelated edges. It is currently ‘tuned’ to for linear returns and we are in our third profitable month. We’ve shared the philosophy, the parameters, the live P&L dashboard for Premium Members to watch in real time.
And we don’t worry about publishing it at all.
Why? Because we know the secret isn’t in the code. It’s in the commitment. Most won’t have the stomach to execute it without deviation, to let it hum along through quiet periods or regime shifts. They’ll feel that pull to change it, to chase flash over fortitude. But for those who Just Do It? That’s where the real edge lives.
Until next time, stay safe and trade well.
Technical Edge
Fair Values for August 14, 2025
S&P: 21.16
NQ: 93.29
Dow: 80.55
Daily Breadth Data 📊
For Wednesday, August 13, 2025
• NYSE Breadth: 77.8% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 73.1% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 73.8% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 79.3% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 71.8% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 74.6% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 207 / 12
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 427 / 88
• NYSE TRIN: 1.24
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.92
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For the Week Ending Friday, August 8, 2025
• NYSE Breadth: 54.5% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 60.1% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 58.0% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 66.7% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 58.4% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 61.5% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 233 / 130
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 385 / 324
• NYSE TRIN: 1.60
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.91
S&P 500/NQ 100 BTS Trading Levels (Premium Only)
Calendars
Economic Calendar Today
This Week’s High Importance
Earnings:
Released
Trading Room News:
Polaris Trading Group Summary: Wednesday, August 13, 2025
Market Context and Strategy
The session opened on Cycle Day 1 with strong bullish momentum carrying over from Tuesday's close near all-time highs.
PTGDavid highlighted the expectation for continuation unless an outside force intervened.
The bullish scenario called for sustained bids above 6460, with initial targets in the 6480–6485 zone.
That target zone was reached with precision early in the session, confirming the continuation bias.
Notable Trades and Execution
Manny entered a long around 6461 based on his overnight levels. He managed the trade with discipline, holding through a deep pullback in line with his system's rules.
PTGDavid called a reversal short off the Money Box using the A4 setup, offering traders a clean tactical shift once initial bullish targets were met.
A crude oil (CL) open range short hit all projected targets, providing another solid setup for those trading multiple markets.
Key Lessons and Discussion
Traders discussed the challenge of shifting bias mid-session, with Manny emphasizing that learning to change mindset on the fly is a skill that must be drilled and practiced.
Emotional management through pullbacks was a major theme, especially when following a system that demands patience and adherence through volatility.
The OODA loop (Observe, Orient, Decide, Act) framework was revisited, with David walking through its value in trading decision-making.
Discussion on chart types included tick charts (David’s preference), Renko (Manny), and time-based options, reinforcing that structure and consistency matter more than format.
Technical Observations
ES and small caps outperformed NQ throughout the day.
NQ struggled to break its line in the sand (LIS) at the prior day high/Globex open, while ES held strong.
ES successfully backtested the prior high and closed with strength, supporting the continuation thesis.
Closing Notes
The day demonstrated a clear and effective execution of both long and short setups.
Emphasis was placed on managing risk, emotional discipline, and understanding when one quality trade is enough.
PTGDavid noted it was a solid day for the bulls and a strong follow-through post-CPI.
Attention now turns to Thursday’s PPI data for additional market context.
DTG Room Preview – Thursday, August 14, 2025
Markets & Macro: Stocks surged to new all-time highs (S&P 500 & Nasdaq) for the second straight day, driven by softer-than-expected July CPI and increasing Fed rate cut expectations. Bitcoin hit a record high above $123K; Ethereum is nearing its own at $4,700+.
Rates & Fed Watch: Treasury Secretary Bessent is urging aggressive cuts (150-175bps). CME FedWatch shows rising odds of a 50bps "jumbo" cut in September. Goldman expects 3 cuts in 2025 and 2 more in 2026. Meanwhile, Fed officials Goolsbee and Bostic remain cautious, pointing to tariff-induced inflation risks.
Tesla in Norway: Despite political backlash in Europe, Tesla sales in Norway rose 24% YoY. Still, VW now leads the market, with Chinese brands like BYD, XPeng, and MG gaining a 12.3% share.
Foxconn/Nvidia: Foxconn expects Q3 revenue +27% QoQ, with AI-related revenue projected to grow over 170% YoY. They're also eyeing EV expansion as a key growth area.
Earnings & Data: Premarket earnings – AMCR, AIT, DE, JD, NTES, QXO, TPR. Postmarket – AMAT, BAP, NU. Economic data includes PPI and jobless claims at 8:30am ET; Richmond Fed’s Barkin speaks at 2pm ET.
Market Internals: Volatility is contracting; ES 5-day ADR is 63.25. No significant whale volume overnight. ES trades within short-term uptrend channels; resistance seen at 6543–6548, with key support at 6452–6457. A break below may lead to a swift drop through 6400.
