ES 5600+ And The End of April Walk Away Trade

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(CNW) is not a stock—it's the state of which the markets and the world are in, Crazy, Nusts and Wild. Here's just a small example of how:

After selling off on Globex, the ES rallied up to 5573.75, sold off to the 5540 area, and then rallied up to 5558, then out comes this:

8:48 AM – Bessent: Will see tariff revenue impact in upcoming tax bill
Sold off down to 5522.

9:11 AM – Amazon plan to show tariff costs a 'hostile' act, Leavitt says

A few seconds later, WH Press Secretary Leavitt announced: Trump will sign an Executive Order on auto tariffs later today.

This doesn’t even include all the earnings and economic reports that had already hit the tape. The ES then rallied up to 5570.50 and dropped back down to the 5535 area after the JOLTS report:

10:00:23 AM – JOLTS Job Openings (Mar): 7.192M vs. 7.490M expected

This signaled weaker labor demand, slower economic growth, increased competition for jobs (with a job openings-to-unemployed ratio at a four-year low of 1.0), and potential upward pressure on unemployment.

It’s very hard for me to gauge what the readers of the OP are thinking. Most of the time, I think you are just like me, concerned and bewildered. After years of being the top player in the world, our economy is riddled with debt, and investment safe havens like the treasury markets may not be all that safe.

The ES just sold off down to the 5536 area and rallied up to the 5570s again. It’s been the same pattern for the last five days—rally, drop, and pop. I think it's fair to say that none of us know what the S&P is going to do next, but based on the overall price action and it being T+1, I really do not see anything in the way of going higher.

According to Jeff Hirsch from the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the technicals are flashing green. Stocks should be higher a year from now, but we are not out of the woods yet. The V-Bottom/Zweig Breadth Thrust Scenario has a few hurdles to clear.

The extreme volatility spike pushing the VIX above 50 and then retreating below 30 is also encouraging. These abrupt changes in volatility and market breadth have a solid history of calling market bottoms. While these technical developments are quite constructive, the nature of this decline and our other seasonal, post-election year, and chart readings are keeping us skeptical.

The S&P 500 is barely back above the 5500-resistance level. This is the bottom of that failed W-1-2-3 swing bottom at the beginning of April. It is also in line with the bottom of the gap from the April 2 tariff announcement to the open the next day on April 3. If we can clear this level, that would be constructive and suggest that this relief rally can continue.

But until we can take back the declining 50-day moving average, the 200-day moving average, and the election gap (orange circle), the market is likely to remain choppy through the summer.

And to further the upside bias, Goldman Sachs says...

Flow of funds check:
GS PB: Gross exposure still high (81st percentile 1-year; 94th for 3 years), while nets remain low (5th percentile for 1 year / 53rd for 3 years).

Buybacks:
We estimate 40% of SPX companies are now out of blackout (see 65% by end of week). The April to May corporate repurchase window is historically strong. This two-month period is the third best of the year with 20% of executions.

CTAs:
See ~3bn of SPX to buy in flat tape this week (expected demand in every scenario).

Month-end pension rebalance:
Small to buy, with this group modeled to BUY $4bn of US equities for month-end.

The ES remained bid right into the new highs at 5597.25—just 2.5 points off the recent high of 5599.75. In the end, it was a big day of drops and pops with a retest of the recent high. Hard to argue with that.