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Double Whammy: SpaceX IPO Meets US/Iran Deal
Danny Riley
June 15, 2026
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We have a weird week ahead. Today is the 15th, which is also when the mutual funds try to buy stocks at mid-month. It's also the start of the CME's index futures rollover, which takes away from outright trading volume.
Yes, there are some economic reports, but as of Saturday at 3:30, there has not been a signed deal between the US and Iran. The news keeps saying the US and Iran are on the cusp of a peace plan and that it's supposed to be signed Sunday, yet it's been a noisy series of conflicting messages that have emerged from officials in Washington and Tehran.
Some people are saying it's not going to get signed, and others are saying it's never been this close, with Trump saying it's going to get signed Sunday and Iran's foreign minister saying it wouldn't be signed Sunday, although a deal in coming days couldn't be ruled out.
Is it the same circle jerk? In some ways, yes, but as I have said for the last 3 to 4 weeks, Trump needs to get a deal done for two reasons: 1) lower energy prices should lower inflation, and 2) the midterm elections. He knows if the war continues, the Democrats will have an even bigger upper hand.
***********************************Breaking News*******************************************
US-Iran Key Details from the Leaked Draft MoU
• Core Deal Structure: A preliminary Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the US and Iran, with a 60-day window to negotiate a full, binding nuclear agreement.
• Iran’s Commitments:
• Immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial shipping, lifting their military blockade.
• Halt further uranium enrichment, suspend nuclear facility expansion, and refrain from producing/acquiring nuclear weapons during the 60 days.
• Full nuclear details, such as reducing highly enriched uranium stockpiles, to be worked out later.
• US Commitments:
• Lift the naval blockade of Iranian ports.
This:
• Temporarily suspend oil sanctions, allowing Iran to sell crude immediately.
• Release $25 billion in frozen Iranian assets via cash, credit lines, etc.
• Mediator: Pakistan, Islamabad MoU.
The article notes this leaked version, from an Iranian official, contradicts Trump’s public statements, which emphasized “no money will exchange hands” and a stronger “wall to no nuclear weapon” outcome, unlike the Obama JCPOA.
Current Status
• Iran has pushed back on today’s, June 14, signing timeline announced by Trump and Pakistani PM Sharif. A Foreign Ministry spokesperson said a signing could happen “in the next few days,” but it’s not locked in, citing ongoing issues like the nuclear program.
• Context from related coverage: Iran has reportedly rebuilt much of its missile/drone capabilities during the truce, approaching talks from a stronger position.
This fits the pattern of back-and-forth negotiations we’ve seen: optimistic claims from one side, hedging or leaks from the other, with Hormuz access and sanctions relief as major pressure points for global oil markets.
Because of the markets being closed for the federal holiday Juneteenth on the Friday's quad, the entire operational expiration-management session—including standard equity options, index options, and index futures—shifts to the preceding business day.
The shift of volatility of the 'typical' "witching hour" volume spike and liquidity shift moves entirely into Thursday's afternoon session. There will be some big early volume prints, but the fact that it's a 4-session work week means what would normally be a 5-session week is crammed into 4 sessions.
Obviously, the damage to the NQ was more severe, but if you look back, the ES made a high at 7476.75 on 06/08/2025, and Friday's high was 7461.75, only down 0.57% over the last 5 sessions, and the NQ is only down 0.62% over the last 5.
Our lean: I think we still see higher prices, but I can't rule out some drops. I'm looking to buy the pullbacks. As I said above, it's a weird week; the Friday's quad witching will fall on Thursday.
The ES had a 7451.25 to 7374.75 Globex trading range, with 310k contracts traded, and opened Friday's regular session at 7423.50, up 29.50 points or +0.39%. I posted this on the open:
IMPRO: Dboy: [Fri 9:30:43 AM]: the big firms have to sell the winner to buy SpaceX
IMPRO: Dboy: [Fri 9:31:08 AM]: thus we could see some sellers
After the open, the ES traded 7424.75, sold off 58.25 points down to 7366.50 at 9:45, rallied 61.25 points up to 7427.75, sold off 39.25 points down to a higher low at 7388.50 at 10:45, and rallied 73.25 points up to 7461.75 at 11:24.
IMPRO: Dboy: [11:26:22 AM]: I think we pull back a bit
And the ES sold off 53.25 points down to 7408.50 at 11:50, then rallied 19.00 points up to 7427.50. It sold off 29.25 points down to 7398.25 at 12:00, rallied 41.25 points up to 7439.50, and pulled back 22.75 points to 7416.75 at 12:20. The ES then stutter-stepped up to 7447.00 at 1:05, sold off 25.25 points down to 7421.75 at 2:20, and slowly rallied up to 7441.25 at 2:40. It sold off down to 7427.25 at 3:00 and then chopped in a 6- to 8-point range. The ES traded 7437.50, sold off soon to 7418.75 at 3:35, and traded as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $1.4 billion to buy, traded up to 7437.75 at 3:55, and traded 7433.50 on the 4:00 cash close.
After 4:00, the ES traded up to 7444.50, sold off down to 7435.75, and settled at 7436.25, up 40.25 points or +0.54%; the NQ settled at 29,553.75, up 213 points or +0.72%; the YM settled at 51,608.00, up 361 points or +0.70%; and the RTY settled at 2949.20, up 27.10 points or +0.93%.
In the end, it was all about SPCX, 510 million shares traded, smashing all-time volume for an IPO. If you invested $2 million and you sold at the high of 176.52 or up 30.76%, you would have made just $615,111.00. In terms of the ES's overall tone, aside from the rebalance drop after the gap-up open, it was buy every pullback. In terms of the ES's overall trade, volume was lower at 1.75 million contracts traded, the lowest in the last 6 sessions.
I want to point something out. I know a lot of what I wrote about the decline was over concern, but a few things I believe I was right about: 1) when I put in the RS levels over a week ago, my lowest level was 7250 and the ES low was 7247.25; 2) I had perfect timing when I wrote extensively about the weakness in the Magnificent 7; and 3) I never called for a crash, which is something I never do when the markets sell off.
On the flip side, I have to admit that, as a bull market guy, I lost focus when the NQ fell 5 out of 6 sessions from 06/03/2026 to 06/10/2026, when it fell 2,079.25 points or 6.7%, and the Magnificent 7 lost an additional 5% or $820 billion. As I said during the decline, there were “reasons to be concerned,” and while I do think the ES can go higher, I also think the bonds, the $40 trillion US debt, are still a major problem. Yes, if oil continues to fall, inflation should come down, but that's not something that just gets better over a few weeks or a few months.
Coming up this week:
Monday: 8:30 Empire State manufacturing survey; 9:15 Industrial production and capacity utilization; 10:00 Home builders confidence index.
Tuesday: 8:30 Import price index, Housing starts, and Building permits.
Wednesday: 8:30 Retail sales and retail sales minus autos; 10:00 Pending home sales and Business inventories; 2:00 FOMC interest rate decision; 2:30 Fed Chairman Warsh's first press conference.
Thursday: 8:30 Initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, and leading index.
Friday: Juneteenth Federal holiday scheduled. CME Group Holiday Trading Hours
Trey Oglesby - Swing Room
Watch Trey’s Market Recap and Forward view from last night. Well attended last night and is in the Swing room every Sunday at 5:30 pm preparing for the live Globex open:
There is a minute of Audio missing at the beginning.
Charts from the Trey’s Talk:
The 3:50 MOC opened with a clear buy-side tone and never really lost control, although the strength did rotate lower after the first expansion. At 15:51, the all-market imbalance jumped to $1.466B net buy, with $4.047B to buy against $2.581B to sell. The dollar lean was +61.1% and the symbol lean was +58.2%, showing a broad buy imbalance, though still more rotational than wholesale at the open. NYSE showed a +58.8% dollar lean, S&P 500 +60.9%, and Nasdaq was the strongest at +64.0% dollars and +69.5% by symbols, putting NQ closest to a wholesale buy signal on the symbol side.
The imbalance continued to build into 15:54–15:55, peaking near $2.84B total net buy. Buy interest reached roughly $5.0B while sells stayed near $2.1B, pushing the dollar lean close to +70%. From there, the buy imbalance faded steadily into the bell, falling to $1.255B at 16:00 and $563M by 16:01, but the close still remained buy-biased at +70.0% dollars and +60.2% symbols.
Sector flow was broadly positive. Real Estate stood out as the clearest wholesale-style buy, with +88.2% dollar lean and +82.7% symbol lean. Energy was also strongly bought at +76.7% dollars and +70.0% symbols. Utilities showed a strong defensive bid at +71.5% dollars and +66.7% symbols. Industrials leaned +69.0%, Consumer Discretionary +67.9%, and Consumer Staples +64.4%. Basic Materials was the outlier, showing a full sell signal at -100.0%, though on only one symbol.
On the sell side, the largest individual sell imbalances were GLW, WDAY, GOOG, AVGO, CDW, GE, PFE, AMAT, MA, LRCX, and ABT. On the buy side, major demand showed up in NVDA, MSFT, META, AMZN, KLAC, AMD, AME, XOM, GEV, and UNH. The close was a buy program led by technology, communication services, energy, industrials, and select defensive sectors, with Nasdaq carrying the strongest symbol confirmation.
Technical Edge
Daily Breadth Data 📊
For Friday, June 12, 2026
• NYSE Breadth: 66% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 49% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 54% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 66% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 55% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 59% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 177 / 22
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 301 / 148
• NYSE TRIN: 0.99
• Nasdaq TRIN: 1.31
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For Week Ending Friday, June 12, 2026
• NYSE Breadth: 56% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 56% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 56% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 69% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 62% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 64% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 266 / 197
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 556 / 511
• NYSE TRIN: 1.80
• Nasdaq TRIN: 1.27
BTS Levels - (Premium Only)
Today’s Important Economic Events
Polaris Trading Group Summary - Friday, June 12, 2026
Friday’s PTG session was a productive Cycle Day 3 / Super-Cycle trading day. The major upside objectives were completed early, shifting the session into a more flexible “wild-card” environment where traders needed to focus on structure, level reactions, and reversal confirmation rather than chasing price.
Opening Context
David began the day with the standard PTG links, Daily Trade Strategy, range tools, and risk disclaimer.
The room was trading the June contract on Friday, with David noting the planned rollover to the September contract for Monday.
Early in the morning, David confirmed that the upside objectives at 7425–7445 had been fully fulfilled.
He described the action as another solid 3-Day Cycle.
Cycle Day 3 Fulfillment
David noted that the Cycle Day 3 targets had been fulfilled.
Once those targets were achieved, he referred to the day as a “wild-card” session.
The market had reached a Super-Cycle condition, meaning the range exceeded 150 handles.
David stated the current cycle range had reached approximately 194 handles.
Early Trade Lean
After the open, David said the early lean favored the sell side.
This helped traders avoid chasing the completed upside move.
The focus shifted toward identifying whether the market would accept higher prices or reject them.
Key Setup: PKB Reversal
David highlighted a textbook Cycle Day 3 push above the Cycle Day 2 high followed by a reversal back below.
He identified this as a PKB setup.
This reversal helped set the rotational decline in motion.
The main lesson was that a failed breakout above a prior key high can trigger meaningful downside rotation.
Important Levels
The D-Level near 7445.25 became a major reference point.
David confirmed that the D-Level was correct.
Price later returned to the 7445 DTS Briefing target.
David noted that bulls needed to expand above that level to prove continued strength.
Without expansion above the level, the area remained vulnerable to rejection.
Positive Trade Examples
One trader noted taking a short around 7429 using a reverse BLT-style read.
Another trader later called out a successful move from the D-Level near 7445 down toward the prior high near 7420.
Members also observed that the first pullback to discounts had been working well throughout the day.
These examples showed the value of trading from predefined levels and waiting for confirmation.
Reversal Structure
David later posted a chart and described the market as having a nice reversal structure.
A member connected the move to a PKB reclaim near the 78.6% retracement.
The room continued to emphasize structure, reactions, and confirmation rather than emotional entries.
Operational Notes
Members discussed futures rollover and Sierra Chart rollover procedures.
There were brief audio issues early in the session, but they were resolved quickly.
Some members also experienced minor platform-related discussion around Sierra Chart.
Main Lessons
Do not chase after major targets are fulfilled.
Cycle Day 3 target completion can create a wild-card environment.
A push above a key high followed by failure back below can create a strong PKB reversal.
Levels need confirmation; simply touching a level is not enough.
The best trades came from structure, predefined levels, and clear reaction points.
DTG Room Preview – Monday, June 15, 2026
Pre-Market Tone
US futures are trading firmer despite another round of US strikes on Iran.
Traders are focusing on potential US–Iran peace progress and de-escalation rather than pricing in a broader conflict.
VIX has eased, supporting a constructive early-session tone.
Key headline risk remains any credible confirmation of Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption.
Macro Backdrop
Wholesale inflation spiked 6.5%, reinforcing sticky inflation concerns.
This keeps the Fed in a restrictive stance and pushes rate-cut expectations further out.
Higher inflation plus geopolitical uncertainty creates a fragile setup for equities.
Upside may stay capped unless tech leadership continues to dominate.
Oil, Geopolitics & Volatility Risk
Iran continues to claim the Strait of Hormuz is closed, though oil remains surprisingly calm and is down over 1%.
Markets appear to view major supply disruption as a tail risk for now.
Any verified shipping impairment could trigger a volatility shock across energy, FX, and index futures.
AI & Tech Themes
Anthropic is turning to Google to support its data-center expansion.
This reinforces the AI infrastructure theme and highlights continued demand for cloud capacity and chips.
Trump’s warning to France over its tech tax adds US–EU tech policy risk, though traders may fade it unless earnings or supply chains are threatened.
Speculative Tech / IPO Watch
SpaceX IPO speculation is adding to risk appetite.
Elon Musk projected SpaceX could reach $1T in revenue by 2030.
Analysts floated aggressive valuation targets, framing the potential IPO as a major liquidity event.
Today’s Calendar
No major corporate earnings of interest today.
8:30 ET: Empire State Manufacturing Index
9:15 ET: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
10:00 ET: NAHB Housing Market Index
ES Technicals
No clear whale bias overnight; large trader volume was light and mixed across June and September ES contracts.
Bulls pushed above the short-term September ES uptrend channel overnight.
Former channel resistance at 7540/45 now becomes potential support.
ES 50-day MA remains loose support near 7354.25.
Key ES Levels
Resistance: 7868/78
Support: 7540/45, 7475/80, 7415/20, 7358/68
