- The Opening Print
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CPI Report Is in Focus
Bulls remain in control
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In the new world trading order, it's all about the rotation of the day.
Some of these rotations only last a day or two. Some last weeks. But rest assured, there is some type of rotation going on every day. Earlier this week, remember how the NQ was ripping higher and the RTY was down 1.5% —- rotation.
Yesterday the RTY sold off again while the ES was trading well above 4800.00 and the bonds were down — rotation.
I generally just look at the index, not the particular stock sector, but tech is the big one. I think it would be a good idea to make a spreadsheet of the ES, NQ, YM, RTY, and the bonds and keep track of it. If the ES keeps going up, will there be more rotation out of the Russell? And what happens when the ES and NQ are being sold? Would that be a good time to buy the RTY?
The answer is in the price action.
Is everyone short? Is it holding key levels? Can you see the bids? Are there buy programs coming in on the half-hour? Is it back and filling?
Because I trade both the ES and NQ, I am acutely aware of which one is being bought or sold aggressively. Yesterday it looked like the ES was outperforming the NQ, but that reversed after the early sell-off.
What I’m saying is, not everyday but most days, there is an agenda — seeing and distinguishing what's more bid or what's more offered. In short...Like I have always said, we are not here to fight city hall and if the ES (or NQ) is going up or down I want to go for the ride.
Our Lean — Danny’s Trade
MiM and Daily Recap
The ES traded up to 4804.00 and sold off down to 4786.00 and opened Wednesday's regular session at 4795.25. After the open, ES traded 4795.00, rallied up to 4807.25 at 9:45, and I pointed out to the MrTopStep chat:
IMPRO : Dboy : (9:47:53 AM) : Unlike the last 4 days you can see the NQ was not going bid
IMPRO : Dboy : (9:48:14 AM) : it rallied but no firepower
From there, the ES sold off down to 4792.25 as the NQ sold off 90 points. After the low, the NQ selling dried up and started to short-cover, pushing the ES backup to a new high at 4806.50 at 11:11. Then the NQ started to sell off, dragging the ES back down to the VWAP at 4797.75 at 11:14, and slowly back-and-filled its way up to a new daily high at 4813.25.
After the high, the ES sold off down to 4801.75 at 1:13, traded up to 4828.50 at 3:05, then sold off down to 4809.25 and traded 4809.50 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $590 million to sell. The ES traded down to 4805.75, rallied up to 4822.50 and traded 4819.25 on the 4:00 cash close. After 4:00, the ES remained in a narrow range and settled at 4820.25, up 29.75 points or +0.62% on the day.
In the end I think I said it correctly in the MrTopStep chat: IMPRO : Dboy : (10:41:25 AM): here is how I see it, the ES has been in an up trend since it made its Oct 27 4121 low..., 140 point pull back was good for the index markets.
In terms of the ES's overall tone, it was firm but not as firm as the NQ. In terms of the ES's overall trade, volume was slightly higher: 176k contracts traded on Globex and 1.129 million traded on the day session for a total of 1.305 million contracts traded.
NYSE Breadth: 46% Upside Volume
Nasdaq Breadth: 46% Upside Volume
Advance/Decline: 56% Advance
S&P 500 — ES Futures