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CPI, PPI and a Wild Summer Setup: The ES Better Hold 7350
Danny Riley
June 09, 2026
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Oil rallied and sold off, gold and silver were down again, and Bitcoin was up almost 5%. The 2-year note was unchanged, the 5-year was down 4 points, and the 30-year bond was down 3.5 points.
Iran said it had ended its strikes against Israel. I get this feeling a Middle East deal is coming.
Like I said in yesterday's OP, CPI is on Wednesday and PPI is on Thursday, which should provide more clues to the Fed's direction, along with the long-awaited SpaceX IPO on Friday.
If you think it's hot out, just wait until later this summer; it's going to get a lot hotter, and so will the markets. I think this summer is going to be wild.
Our Lean — Danny’s Trade (Premium only)
Tom Incorvia - Blue Tree Strategies
XLY shows a stepwise downward revaluation. The first balance area (120–125) gave way to a directional break lower, after which price built a second, lower balance (116–120) whose upper edge aligns with the first balance's floor. A clean migration of accepted value down one shelf. The tell was the rejection: when price probed back up into the first balance it was turned away rather than accepted, marking that prior value area as unfair high with responsive sellers defending it. Price is probing below the second balance, testing for responsive buyers beneath accepted value. The read hinges on acceptance versus rejection. If the market spends time and builds volume below 116, value migrates lower again and the down-auction continues toward the prior responsive low near 106; a quick return back into balance instead flags a failed probe and shifts the near-term edge back to the long side.
AMZN built two balance areas in ascending sequence — the first (202–214) through Feb–early April, then a sharp directional advance to a higher balance (263–273) in May, a constructive upward migration of accepted value. That structure has now turned: price has broken below the upper balance and is trading down near 245, signaling the auction is rejecting the higher value area and probing lower. As the heaviest-weighted XLY component, this break echoes the sector itself. Both are now testing beneath accepted value, and the same acceptance-versus-rejection question applies. Time and volume building below the balance confirms a continued downward auction; a quick recovery back inside flags a failed probe.
You can purchase Tom’s Course on Volume Profile here
AG Corner: Lauren Urbanczyk
Texas Hedge Risk Management
Corn & Wheat Finally Green
Corn and wheat are trying to bounce, trading higher for the first time in weeks.
Crop conditions decreased in soybeans, while the market was expecting an improvement. That shift helped bring some attention back to the grain markets after a rough stretch.
The big question now: are funds almost done selling?
The USDA report comes out Thursday. The June WASDE does not often bring major changes, but the market will still be watching closely.
Export demand remains a problem for corn. China is still the major wildcard. Maybe China wants the war situation resolved before stepping back in as a major buyer, but if China does decide to buy, it could flip these markets quickly.
Corn just had its worst week since 2009, so any bounce needs to be respected, but also managed carefully.
I still do not think the bean oil story is finished. I also do not think the China story is over. In many ways, it has not even started yet. Logically, China would be more likely to buy near harvest.
In wheat, spring wheat conditions improved, while winter wheat conditions dropped.
Be ready to pull the trigger if you need to on a bounce. There are a lot of moving pieces right now, and it is important to recognize all of the factors at play.
The bigger question remains: where could the harvest low be?
Full chart breakdowns are available on the website.
Listen to today’s audio below.
The ES had a 7355.00 to 7471.75 Globex trading range and opened Monday’s regular session at 7457.25, up 57 points or 0.77%.
After the open, the ES traded at 7469.25, sold off 31.25 points down to 7438.00, rallied 22.50 points up to a lower high at 7460.50, and sold off 31.50 points down to 7429.00 at 10:00. It then traded back up to the 7467.75 Globex high at 11:05, sold off 27.00 points down to a new low at 7440.75 at 11:30, rallied 25.25 points up to 7466.00 at 11:45, and sold off 28.75 points down to a new low at 7437.25 at 12:35.
From there, it rallied 14.75 points up to 7452.00 at 12:45, sold off down to a new low at 7423.00 at 1:15, and rallied 23.50 points up to 7446.50 at 1:30. It pulled back to a higher low of 7425.75 at 1:45 and then stutter-stepped up to 7447.00 at 2:30 before selling off 43.25 points down to another new low at 7403.75 at 3:25. It then rallied 20.50 points up to 7424.25 at 3:30, traded at 7411.25 at 3:40, reached 7415.75 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $1.7 billion to sell, and finally traded at 7416.00 on the 4:00 cash close.
After 4:00, the ES traded down to 7407.20 at 4:20 and settled at 7412.25, up 15.75 points or +0.30%. The NQ settled at 25929.66, up 220.23 points or +0.86%. The YM settled at 50786.01, down 80.77 points or -0.16%, and the RTY settled at 2855.42, up 21.84 points or +0.77% on the day.
In the end, yesterday's rally was pretty much what I expected; there was just too much selling, and everything went down too fast. In terms of the ES and NQ's overall tone, I'm glad they rallied, but I didn't like how weak the ES got after 3:00. In terms of the ES's overall trade, volume was on the higher side at 1.70 million contracts traded.
For real, I am not going to do a big Our View/Our Lean today. It is going to be a long week, and there really isn't anything I can say that I haven't already said.
Market-on-Close Recap
The MOC opened with a strong buy-side tone and held that bias through the closing sequence, although the imbalance steadily faded into 4:00. At 15:50 the book was +$1.772B, with $5.167B to buy against $3.395B to sell. From there, the imbalance remained positive but gradually bled lower: +$1.280B at 15:52, +$1.598B at 15:54, +$857M at 15:56, +$500M at 15:59, and +$290M at 16:00 before ticking back to +$377M at 16:01.
The broad market finished buy-leaning rather than purely rotational. All markets showed a +60.4% dollar lean and +56.1% symbol lean, while the S&P 500 posted a +60.3% dollar lean and +57.8% symbol lean. Nasdaq was the standout index group with a +70.9% dollar lean, putting it above the 66% notable threshold and signaling more wholesale-style buy demand. NYSE was milder at +52.3%, closer to rotational.
Sector action was led by Information Technology, which showed a major +$1.44B net imbalance on $2.168B to buy versus $727.81M to sell. Its +74.9% dollar lean was particularly notable. Consumer Staples was also very strong at +89.6%, Materials at +83.8%, Real Estate at +74.9%, and Basic Materials at +100%, though Basic Materials had only one symbol. On the sell side, Health Care was the largest drag at -$443.54M with a -70.1% dollar lean, also crossing the wholesale sell threshold. Energy, Utilities, and Communication Services also leaned sell.
Symbol flow was concentrated in large-cap technology and select health care. MU led the buy side at $738.83M, followed by AMD, AAPL, NXPI, MSFT, NVDA, MSTR, and INTU. Sell pressure was led by LLY, AVGO, UNH, TSLA, XOM, CAT, META, MCD, LRCX, TXN, and SPOT. Overall, the close was buy-biased, tech-led, and Nasdaq-heavy, but with meaningful offsetting liquidation in Health Care and Energy.
Fair Values for June 9, 2026:
SP: 8.62
NQ: 41.09
Dow: 45.38
Daily Market Recap 📊
For Monday, June 8, 2026
• NYSE Breadth: 47% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 66% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 60% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 47% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 56% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 53% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 77 / 87
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 155 / 191
• NYSE TRIN: 1.00
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.66
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For Week Ending Friday, June 5, 2026
• NYSE Breadth: 45% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 48% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 47% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 38% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 30% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 33% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 285 / 201
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 854 / 484
• NYSE TRIN: 0.77
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.48
ES & NQ Levels (Premium only)
BTS Levels are an OP Premium Feature.
Polaris Trading Group Summary - Monday, June 8, 2026
Monday was a Cycle Day 2 recovery and balance session after the prior Cycle Day 1 selloff. David’s early roadmap called for a “Recover-Rally”, and the day offered both bullish opportunities and useful lessons about patience, failed setups, and respecting key range edges.
Morning Framework
David identified the day as Cycle Day 2.
The expected theme was a Recover-Rally to counterbalance the previous Cycle Day 1 decline.
Traders who bought calls near the end of Cycle Day 1 were in a favorable position coming into the session.
The initial working range, or “sandbox,” was marked around 7440–7465, plus or minus 5 points.
Early Session: Range and Ambiguity
The market opened with two-way trade and some uncertainty.
Price spent time consolidating around VWAP, making patience important.
The room discussed how to approach a Cycle Day 2:
Whether to wait for a breakout.
How to trade the first pullback.
Where to place stops.
How to read ATR, VWAP, CCI, premium, and fair value.
A key lesson was not to force trades while the market is still balanced.
Bullish Control Returns
After consolidation near VWAP, David noted that bulls had regained full control.
The preferred strategy shifted to BFTD — buy the pullback to key zones.
A positive example came from slatitude39, who reported going long with a buy stop at 7460.25 around 10:51.
This aligned well with the bullish recovery theme and the idea of trading from structure rather than emotion.
Key Upside Level
David highlighted the 7475 handle as an important level.
Bulls needed to convert 7475 into solid upper support to press for a squeeze.
This became one of the main reference points for the session.
The market attempted to hold higher, but upside momentum later faded.
ORT Strategy Lesson
David was direct about the ORT strategy, saying it “sucked today” and was “Three and Out.”
This was an important trading lesson:
Not every strategy works every day.
A failed setup should be accepted quickly.
Professional trade management means stopping before small losses become larger ones.
Bruce added a helpful mindset reminder, comparing it to Aaron Judge striking out three times in a game and still being Hall of Fame caliber.
Midday Balance
Around lunch, David noted that price was consolidating between 7440 and 7475.
This confirmed the session had shifted into a defined balance area.
The market was no longer a clean upside trend, but rather a structured consolidation day.
David planned to check back around the afternoon Shake n Bake window.
Afternoon Action
David later described the session as a normal Cycle Day 2 balance/consolidation day following Friday’s liquidation.
Into the final hour, he called out the final selldown of the day.
Near the close, there was a $1.9 billion MOC buy imbalance.
The day ended as a recovery/balance session rather than a full trend day.
Main Takeaways
The Cycle Day framework gave traders the correct early expectation for recovery after liquidation.
The best long opportunities came after bulls regained control around VWAP.
7440–7475 was the key range for the day.
The 7460.25 long was a strong example of using structure and confirmation.
The ORT strategy failure was a valuable reminder to stay disciplined and stop pressing when a setup is not working.
Overall, it was a constructive trading day with positive long opportunities, strong educational discussion, and clear lessons in patience, adaptability, and trade management.
Discovery Trading Group Room Preview – Tuesday, June 9, 2026
Morning Market Tone
Index futures are green as traders rotate back into tech after Friday’s sharp selloff.
The VIX fell nearly 7% yesterday, suggesting some easing in fear after recent volatility.
The US dollar is at a two-month high on rising Fed-hike expectations.
Oil is up nearly 5%, keeping inflation risk in focus even as geopolitical tensions cool.
Geopolitics and Oil
Israel and Iran have paused further escalation after missile exchanges.
Oil initially spiked on the conflict but has stabilized as traders reassess broader-war risk.
Easing Gulf tensions are helping reduce tail-risk volatility.
Market focus is shifting back toward macro data, tech flows, and AI sentiment.
Tech and AI Focus
The main question is whether the AI trade is stabilizing or entering a deeper correction.
NVDA, AVGO, and ORCL saw heavy selling last week as valuation concerns resurfaced.
Apple’s WWDC AI rollout and Meta’s AI infrastructure push remain key big-tech catalysts.
OpenAI IPO preparations are also being watched as a sentiment test for AI infrastructure plays.
Global Macro Headwinds
Japan’s markets weakened as tech pulled back and risk appetite softened.
Yen weakness and rising bond-yield volatility remain concerns.
A stronger dollar and tighter global financial conditions could pressure US index futures if volatility spreads.
Calendar and Earnings
Today’s data includes:
NFIB Small Business Index at 6:00am ET
ADP Weekly Employment Change at 8:15am ET
Trade Balance at 8:30am ET
Existing Home Sales and Wholesale Inventories at 10:00am ET
Earnings:
SJM reports premarket
CASY reports after the close
CNM and ICLR report Wednesday morning
ORCL reports Wednesday after the bell
ES Technicals
Volatility remains elevated after Friday’s 200-point ES selloff.
The ES 5-day average daily range rose to 118.50 points from 105.50.
No whale bias today due to light overnight large-trader volume.
The former intermediate-term uptrend channel bottom, now 7505/7510, capped Monday’s high and remains key resistance.
No clear swing low is in place, leaving no defined trendline supports below.
The ES 50-day moving average at 7228.50 remains potential loose support.
Key ES Levels
Potential Trendline Resistance: 7505/7510, 7550/7555, 7677/7680, 7760/7765
Potential Trendline Support: None identified
