- The Opening Print
- Posts
- CPI on Deck, PPI in the Hole, and the Trumpster Heads to China
CPI on Deck, PPI in the Hole, and the Trumpster Heads to China
Danny Riley
May 12, 2026
Follow @MrTopStep on Twitter and please share if you find our work valuable!
The CPI should come in hot. Goldman Sachs has raised its 2026 PCE inflation forecast to 2.6% and delayed its projected Federal Reserve rate cut until December due to persistent energy price shocks from Middle East tensions. I’ll be honest, it's 12:35 a.m., and after a few glasses of red wine, I don't know how things will end up. I am not very hopeful for a good outcome, but I also don't think I am the only one in this camp.
Our Lean — Danny’s Trade (Premium only)
Tom Incorvia - Blue Tree Strategies
Both Occidental Petroleum and ConocoPhillips are telling the same story — energy names that experienced significant upside price discovery have now retreated to well-established structural support levels where the auction previously found meaningful participation. In both cases, the market is not in freefall; it is returning to areas where buyers have demonstrated a willingness to defend value. Today's price action across both names suggests responsive buying is emerging at these levels, which is consistent with the broader energy sector strength we're seeing today driven by the Iran/Hormuz supply shock. The auction is doing exactly what it should — returning to value and waiting for the market to declare its next directional conviction.
Occidental developed a well-structured balance area between $52 and $67 throughout mid-February, a range where the market found broad acceptance from both buyers and sellers. The recent breakdown brought price back to a well-established demand zone, and today's 4% rally represents classic responsive buying — participants defending their prior inventory and signaling they still see value at these levels. The key question now is whether the auction can sustain trade here and begin repairing value back toward $52.70, the first structural reference that needs to be reclaimed for the buyers to regain control.
ConocoPhillips auctioned aggressively higher from mid-February into early April, ultimately finding responsive sellers at $133.19 — a level the market has clearly marked as the upper boundary of accepted value. The subsequent retreat has brought price back to $114.36, a well-established structural reference where the auction previously paused and found support on multiple occasions. Current price is oscillating right at this level, and the way the market responds here is telling — buyers are stepping in, but conviction is limited. This is a classic test of a prior support shelf, and $114.36 is the line the auction needs to defend. Failure to hold opens the door to $108.
You can purchase Tom’s Course on Volume Profile here
After the U.S.-Iran headlines Sunday night, the ES sold off on Globex, made a high at 7420.75, and opened Monday's regular session at 7410.00, down 11 points or -0.15%.
After the open, the ES rallied 27.25 points up to 7437.25 at 9:45, pulled back 8.25 points down to 7429.00, rallied 13 points up to 7442.00 at 10:25, and dropped 20.25 points down to the VWAP at 7421.75, rallied up to a new high at 7445.75 at 10:55. From there, the ES pulled back to 7435.75 at 11:15 and then did a sideways-to-up back-and-fill trade, rallied to 7449.75 at 11:55, and back-and-filled in a 3- to 5-point range. The ES made a high at 7450.50, sold off down to 7434.25, did a back-and-fill grind up to 7454.25 at 1:45, sold off 26.5 points down to 7427.75, and traded 7432.75 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $1.8 billion to buy. The ES rallied up to 7436.50 at 3:55 and traded up to 7440.25 on the 4:00 cash close.
After 4:00, the ES sold off down to 7426.00 at 4:11, rallied back up to 7436.75, and settled at 7436.75, up 17.75 points or +0.24%. The NQ settled at 29,4524.00, up 91.50 points or +0.31%, the YM settled at 47,972, and the RTY settled at 2,846.10, up 11.30 points or up 0.39% on the day.
In the end, the NQ and ES rallied to new highs as oil rose amid continued geopolitical concerns. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it was firm but felt tired. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was high at 1.986 million contracts traded.
Coming up this week:
TUESDAY, MAY 12
CPI — 8:30 AM ET
JBS, Under Armour, Vodafone, Aramark, Franco-Nevada
Austan Goolsbee speaks
WEDNESDAY, MAY 13
PPI Inflation Report
Alibaba, Cisco, StubHub, USA Rare Earth, Nebius, Birkenstock
Neel Kashkari, Lorie Logan speak
THURSDAY, MAY 14
Trump arrives in Beijing; Israel–Lebanon talks resume
Musk vs. OpenAI closing arguments begin
Cerebras IPO (CBRS)
Retail Sales, Jobless Claims, U.K. GDP
FRIDAY, MAY 15
Powell officially exits as Fed Chair
Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization
Mizuho Financial, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial
Market-on-Close Recap
The closing MOC developed with a strong buy-side tone through most of the imbalance window before fading sharply into the bell and briefly flipping negative after 16:00. At 15:50, total imbalance stood at +$2.49B with buy pressure dominating at $3.42B versus $927M for sale. The market maintained a clear institutional buy lean throughout the majority of the sequence, with dollar lean readings consistently above +57% until the final minute. Symbol breadth also stayed constructive, peaking at +68.7%, a particularly notable reading that reflected broad wholesale demand rather than simple rotational activity.
The strongest buying pressure came from Nasdaq and large-cap growth names. NASDAQ closed with a powerful +82.9% dollar lean and +70.4% symbol lean, signaling aggressive institutional accumulation. The S&P 500 also maintained a healthy +65.2% dollar lean while the NYSE diverged materially, posting a negative lean near -51%, showing much heavier sell-side participation in traditional industrial and cyclical listings.
Technology and communication services dominated the buy programs. Information Technology posted a +78.2% dollar lean with a +66.3% symbol lean, crossing the notable threshold that often signals broad program buying across the sector. Communication Services followed closely at +68.5% and +63.6%, driven largely by mega-cap internet and media names.
META led all symbols with approximately +$319.6M in net buying while GOOGL added +$178.4M and GOOG another +$127.9M, showing concentrated accumulation in the Alphabet complex. Semiconductor demand remained extremely firm with INTC (+$188.1M), MU (+$172.5M), AMD (+$136.5M), AVGO (+$83M), and AMAT (+$85.2M) all seeing aggressive buy-side flows. AAPL also attracted +$122.4M.
On the sell side, TSLA showed nearly $896M paired against only a modest net imbalance, suggesting heavy two-way institutional rotation rather than outright directional conviction. IBM, BRK.B, JPM, VZ, and DIS all saw meaningful sell pressure. Energy was the weakest sector overall at -61.2%, while Utilities also leaned defensive at -50.4%.
Into the close, the market transitioned from broad institutional accumulation toward significant profit-taking and balancing activity, with the final 16:01 print slipping to a -56% sell lean as liquidity providers squared books into the bell.
Fair Values for May 12, 2026:
SP: 23.65
NQ: 110.85
Dow: 90.15
Daily Market Recap 📊
For Monday, May 11, 2026
• NYSE Breadth: 45% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 59% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 55% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 40% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 44% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 43% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 140 / 84
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 457 / 195
• NYSE TRIN: 0.80
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.55
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For Week Ending Friday, May 8, 2026
• NYSE Breadth: 49% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 57% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 54% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 55% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 58% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 57% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 370 / 128
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 854 / 357
• NYSE TRIN: 1.32
• Nasdaq TRIN: 1.03
ES & NQ Levels (Premium only)
Economic Calendar
Today’s S&P500 Earnings: 31
Polaris Trading Group Summary - Monday, May 11, 2026
Morning Setup & DTS Targets
PTGDavid noted that overnight trade had already tagged both DTS targets:
Downside: 7390
Upside: 7420
Later, the 7430 upside target was officially fulfilled.
This reinforced the value of the Daily Trade Strategy framework.
Market Tone
The session developed into a steady bullish “up-grind.”
PTGDavid encouraged sticking with the rhythm of the market.
Nasdaq strength became more evident later in the day.
Key Trade Levels
D-Level 7440 was identified during the morning.
Money Box Level 1 came into play in the afternoon.
The MB1 setup produced a strong move of about 20 handles from the entry zone.
Positive Trade Highlights
Bruce F caught three DLMB trades.
DanV also traded the same setup successfully.
slatitude39 reported two shorts from the D-Level and Money Box areas.
Bruce noted DLMB is now a mandatory setup in his trade plan.
PTGDavid praised this as “process.”
Trader Psychology Lessons
Ram emphasized trading with an empty mind and no bias.
The room discussed reframing beliefs and staying mentally flexible.
Barbara highlighted a core lesson:
Traders cannot control outcomes.
Traders can control risk.
The group also discussed the value of mentorship and trader development.
Afternoon & Closing Notes
The market continued to hold strong into the afternoon.
PTGDavid noted a $1.8B MOC buy imbalance, primarily Nasdaq-related.
The day closed with the bullish tone still intact.
Main Takeaways
Respect the DTS targets and prepared levels.
Follow the trend without forcing bias.
D-Levels and Money Box setups provided strong opportunities.
Focus on process, not prediction.
Risk control remains the trader’s main responsibility.
Discovery Trading Group Room Preview – Tuesday, May 12, 2026
Market focus: US/Iran ceasefire concerns remain the main driver, with Trump rejecting Iran’s latest peace offer and oil back above $100/barrel.
Key catalyst: April CPI at 8:30am ET is the major event, with traders watching for inflation impact and Fed policy implications.
Fed backdrop: FedWatch shows little chance of a rate cut this year, with rate-hike odds growing for next year.
China trip: Trump’s China delegation includes CEOs from Boeing, Tesla, Apple, and Cargill, but Nvidia’s Jensen Huang is notably absent.
Corporate news: GM reportedly cut 600+ salaried IT roles as it shifts hiring toward AI-focused skills.
Earnings: Premarket reports include JD, VOD, ARMK, SE, TME, and ZBRA. Alibaba reports Wednesday morning.
Volatility: ES 5-day average daily range eased to 82 points from 85.25.
Whale bias: No meaningful overnight whale bias due to light large-trader volume.
ES levels:
Resistance: 7465/68s
Supports: 7371/74s, 7225/30s, 7046/51s
Trend: Long-term MA bias remains bullish, with the ES 50-day MA still above the 200-day MA.
