The CPI Fix Was In?

Follow @MrTopStep on Twitter and please share if you find our work valuable!

Every week, MrTopStep invites traders to an “Own the Close” contest where the closest guesstimate where the SPX will settle on Friday’s 4:00 cash close.

The winners get a free week's access to the MrTopStep Chat and trading tools. Enter your guess now!

Our View

I know some people think it's funny or untrue, but yesterday’s CPI number was front-run. 

I get it, people with PHDs are way smarter than I am. But do you really think the members of Congress and the Senate that make $175k a year and have amassed $100 million to $200 million are smart? I don't think so. They have information that we will never know about. 

Look at all the Wall Street traders who have given out firm information…the list is a mile long. 

Trust me I am not complaining because it's gone on forever, but information leads to profits and here is the proof: Net worth of United States Senators and Representatives

Wouldn't it have been nice if you got the CPI print Tuesday morning? All I'm saying is that this is not a fair and level playing ground. When you throw in Powell's comments and the $3.8 billion to buy, someone knew…

MiM and Daily Recap

Leading up to CPI release, the ES's overnight trading range was 5266.25 to 5277.50 and was trading 5275.00 with total Globex volume of 109k just before the number. The final number showed Consumer prices rose 0.3% in April, less than expectations and the ES rallied up to 5203.00 at 8:30:28, Globex volume jumped to 239k just before the regular session and traded 5293.50. 

After the open, the ES traded 5292.25, rallied 1 tick above the 5303.00 high to 5303.25 at 9:42 and then sold off down to 5286.75 at 9:51 and rallied up to 5308.00 at 11:03. From there it made three more new highs at 5214.25 at 11:10, 5316.50 at 11:25 and 5317.25 at 11:37. After the high, the ES pulled back to 5309.75 at 12:08 and then rallied 14.5 points up to another new high at 5324.25, pulled back, made another new high at 5225.50, pulled back to 5319.00 at 1:50 and then made another new high up to 5327.50.

From there, the ES pulled back to 5321.75 and then slowly crept back up and rallied up to 5330.50 and traded 5329.75 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $2 billion to sell and traded 5333.50 at 4:00, dropped down to 5325.25 at 4:18 and settled at 5330.25 at 5:00, up 61.25 points or +1.16%. The NQ settled at 18,694.50, up 283.75 points or +1.54%, Bitcoin rose 7.4%, trading above $66,000,  the front-month copper futures rose to yet another record, while silver settled at a 52-week high. Gold rose, too, settling near record highs and the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield slipped to 4.354%, its third consecutive day of declines.

In the end, the fix was in. In terms of the ES's overall tone it was firm all day. In terms of the ES's overall trade, volume was higher: 240k traded on Globex and 1.068 million contracts traded on the day session for a total of 1.308 million contracts traded.

Technical Edge

• NYSE Breadth: 51% Upside Volume

• Nasdaq Breadth: 72% Upside Volume

• Advance/Decline: 70% Advance

• VIX: ~12.50

Economic Calendar

For a more complete Economic Calendar see: https://mrtopstep.com/economic-calendar/

Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.

Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!