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Our View

After a rally up to 6728.75 on Globex, the ES opened the regular session at 6727.25, up 11.5 points or +0.17%. After the open, the ES traded 6728.25 and sold off 22.25 points down to 6706.00 at 9:51, rallied up to 6719.25, a lower high, and then puked all the way down to 6678.00, a 41-point drop. It rallied up to 6693.00 at 12:30, pulled back, and then rallied up to 6698.50 at 1:09. After another small pullback, it rallied up to 6700.25 at 1:33 and pulled back to 6693.75 at 2:58.

From there, it pulled back a few points and traded in a 3 to 4-point range for the next 45 minutes. It traded 6693.00 as the 3:50 imbalance showed $2.46 billion to buy, rallied up to 6695.50, and then traded 6692.00 on the 4:00 close. It settled at 6692.25. The NQ settled up 0.35% at 24,739.25.

In the end, it was a continuation of AI stocks for sale again yesterday, which is more than likely part of the end-of-quarter rebalance. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it was held captive to the weakness in the NQ. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was lower at 1.118 million contracts traded.

Today’s Economic Calendar

• 8:20: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee

• 8:30: Jobless Claims, GDP, U.S. Trade Balance, Durable Goods

• 9:00: Existing Home Sales, NY Fed’s John Williams (opening remarks)

• 10:00: Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman

• 1:00: Fed Gov. Michael Barr

• 1:40: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan

• 3:30: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly

Our View

It’s been a tough couple of days for the index market, right? The reality is the ES closed up 34.75 points on September 18, 29 points on the 19th, and 30 points on the 22nd — that’s 77+ points.

The ES fell 37.5 points on September 23 and fell 22.75 points yesterday, or down 60.25 points over the two sessions, and is only 66 points off its 6756.75 all-time contract high. Sometimes I may be overly cautious, but I believe there are a lot of reasons for that.

I’m not smart enough to know where this is going, and while I don’t know when the last dance is going to be, I do know there are going to be multi-generational changes. In some ways, I get the same feeling I did back in the 2008 credit crisis.

We knew on the floor that the Fed had to intervene, but that was back when the national debt of the United States reached $9.4 trillion by late January 2008, as reported by TreasuryDirect. The U.S. debt then surpassed $10 trillion in the final days of the fiscal year on September 30, 2008. By that time, the shit had already hit the fan: Countrywide, Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, and AIG were wiped off the map.

The debt breached the $30 trillion mark for the first time in February 2022. In December 2023, total federal debt was $33.1 trillion; $26.5 trillion held by the public and $12.1 trillion in intragovernmental debt. When is the end coming? Not now. Once the government spending bill gets passed, the new pump will start, and there will be new contract highs.

I had a saying during the credit crisis: “Wall Street had a big party, and we didn’t get invited — but we paid for it.” That’s how I feel about this today. The people of the U.S. didn’t vote to continue to kick the can down the road; our elected officials did. Now they have run up so much debt that any major economic or geopolitical disturbance could set off a real reversal.

What if one morning we wake up and China is blasting away on Taiwan and dumping U.S. Treasuries while Putin is expanding his war in Europe? They know the U.S. is riding a tech/AI bubble, and what do they do? China orders a stop of NVDA chips.

We all know China has been preparing for war with the U.S. for years. They know the U.S. will go charging in — and that’s when all our ships will be sunk. How will U.S. aircraft carriers stop 100 hypersonic carrier-killers fired off at once from all directions, while also attacking the Philippines at the same time? I hope I’m wrong.

MiM and Daily Recap

Intraday Recap

The ES opened Thursday’s Globex session at 6717.75 and quickly pressed higher, marking an early high of 6722.50 at 18:00. Sellers responded, pulling the contract down to 6711.75 by 20:00. A steady overnight recovery took hold, lifting ES back to 6728.00 at 02:45, the overnight high. Momentum then faded, with a pullback to 6715.50 at 03:15 before prices rebounded again into the European morning. Another modest push topped out at 6728.75 near 07:30, just ahead of the U.S. cash open.

The regular session began at 6727.25 and immediately turned lower. ES tagged 6706.00 at 09:50 before a brief bounce carried it to 6719.00 by 10:50. That rally quickly failed, and the market cascaded to the session low of 6678.00 at 12:10, a 41-point drop from the morning high. A midday rebound climbed to 6700.00 at 13:35, but another wave of selling knocked the contract back to 6681.25 at 14:10. From there, buyers attempted to stabilize, lifting ES into the close with a late high of 6700.00 at 18:00. Futures ultimately settled the regular session at 6692.00, down 35.25 points or -0.52% from the open.

In the cleanup session, ES drifted modestly higher, closing at 6697.00, up 5.00 points from the 16:00 print. For the full day, ES lost 20.75 points (-0.31%), settling at 6697.00. Compared with the prior cash close, the contract was down 23.75 points (-0.35%). Total volume reached 1.19M contracts, with the bulk of activity concentrated in the regular session.

Market Tone & Notable Factors

Thursday’s tone was broadly defensive. The overnight trade was contained, with repeated failures near the 6728 area suggesting overhead supply. The regular session followed through on this weakness, posting a clean downtrend in the morning and printing its low at midday before recovering into the afternoon.

Volume confirmed the bearish tilt, with over one million contracts changing hands during regular hours. Sellers pressed their advantage in the morning, but the inability to extend losses below 6678 in the afternoon hinted at short-covering support.

Market-on-Close data showed a notable buy imbalance, with $2.46B to buy at 15:51, representing 86% of the total imbalance dollars. The symbol imbalance registered at 61.6%, below the 66% threshold for a strong signal but still skewed toward buyers. Key flows were concentrated in Communication Services and Technology, with large buy imbalances in GOOGL ($89.97M), AAPL ($75.25M), and GOOG ($42.72M), while TEAM posted a sharp sell imbalance of -$18.95M. Sector data reinforced the tech and comms leadership, with those groups absorbing nearly all of the buy flows.

Despite the late-session buying interest, the strong sell programs earlier in the day defined the tone, leaving ES with a modest net decline. Traders will be watching whether the 6678 low can hold as support or if the failure at 6728 signals further downside risk heading into the next session.

How to read the MiM

Technical Edge

Fair Values for September 25, 2025

• S&P: 55.08

• NQ: 234.7

• Dow: 320.83

Daily Breadth Data 📊

For Wednesday, September 24, 2025

• NYSE Breadth: 41% Upside Volume

• Nasdaq Breadth: 57% Upside Volume

• Total Breadth: 55% Upside Volume

• NYSE Advance/Decline: 37% Advance

• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 43% Advance

• Total Advance/Decline: 41% Advance

• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 80 / 43

• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 168 / 75

• NYSE TRIN: 0.86

• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.56

Weekly Breadth Data 📈

For the Week Ending Friday, September 19, 2025

• NYSE Breadth: 53% Upside Volume

• Nasdaq Breadth: 62% Upside Volume

• Total Breadth: 49% Upside Volume

• NYSE Advance/Decline: 48% Advance

• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 59% Advance

• Total Advance/Decline: 55% Advance

• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 364 / 76

• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 805 / 187

• NYSE TRIN: 0.81

• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.88

Calendars

Economic Calendar Today

This Week’s High Importance

Earnings:

Released

Full Calendars

Trading Room News:

Polaris Trading Group Summary: Wednesday, September 24, 2025

Wednesday was a Cycle Day 1, kicking off a fresh trading cycle, and the PTG room executed it with sharp precision and discipline. PTGDavid and the crew delivered a textbook session, marked by clear scenario planning, disciplined execution, and strong alignment with the dominant market forces.

Market Overview & Strategy

• Cycle Transition: From CD3 to CD1, with the prior day’s decline fulfilling the average CD3 downside projection.

• Key Zones:

  • Support at 6701.75 with potential breakdown to 6685–6680.

  • Resistance/Bull Scenario over 6715 targeting 6725–6730, then 6745.

• Overnight action had already fulfilled the 6725–6730 bull target before RTH, giving traders a head start.

Successful Trades & Execution Highlights

• Early Bull Target Fulfillment:

  • Overnight price action reached the 6725–6730 zone with “Ultra Man Precision”.

• Manny's Support Buy at ES 6707:

  • Executed cleanly with +5 pts on first scale, later catching +10 on extended move.

  • Great patience shown waiting for fills, while staying flexible.

• Textbook A4 & A10 Short Combo:

  • David flagged this short setup around 6710–6694 levels.

  • Played out beautifully, tagging the 6685 and eventually 6680 downside targets to the tick.

  • "Triple A" approach (Alignment, Assignment, Attack) guided this sequence masterfully.

  • David called it: “BOOOOM...There's 6685 per plan!”

• NQ Open Range Short also fulfilled all targets.

Lessons & Insights

• Discipline Pays: Multiple comments about the importance of sticking to the plan, managing risk, and being patient.

• Manny’s Sign: “Remove the human variable” – a mantra reminding traders to trade the process, not emotions.

• Cumulative Delta & TICK: Sell-side pressure was consistently noted, helping guide trade bias.

• Gamma Awareness: Several traders highlighted the importance of large gamma levels (e.g., 6674), helping to refine entries and exits.

• Market Profile Analysis: “Great profile chart” and understanding of “balancing day” structure helped guide intraday expectations.

• Cycle Day Interpretation: Ongoing discussion about Taylor Cycle Day confusion, reinforcing the need to understand context and market behavior over rigid labels.

Afternoon Observations

• Post-lunch saw consolidation between 6680–6700.

• Premium short from 5-min bear flag was noted by David.

• 2PM “Shake n Bake” failed to spark much new movement.

• Final push into the close had a $2.6B MOC Buy Imbalance, though market stayed mostly contained.

Key Takeaways

• Preparedness + Execution = Results: David’s pre-market plan mapped out both bull and bear scenarios with exacting levels. Members who followed those levels, especially the A4/A10 short sequence, were rewarded handsomely.

• Stick to AAA setups: The day reinforced the PTG directive to align with dominant force, execute on only high-quality setups, and manage risk proactively.

• Value of Process Over PnL: “A good trade is a good process”—the focus remained on clean execution and trade logic, not just dollars.

Summary:

A strong, professional trading day that highlighted the power of strategic preparation, patience, and community learning. The downside projection to 6680 was achieved flawlessly, providing excellent opportunities for disciplined traders. This was a day where the plan was the edge—and the room executed it with excellence.

 “Absolutely stunning symmetrical swings. Thing of beauty.” – PTGDavid

DTG Room Preview – Thursday, September 25, 2025

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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.

Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!