- The Opening Print
- Posts
- Can’t See Through the Woods, But the ES Keeps Knocking on 7800
Can’t See Through the Woods, But the ES Keeps Knocking on 7800
Follow @MrTopStep on Twitter and please share if you find our work valuable!
Our View
You know how I talk about ‘up a day, down a day price action’? Well, the ZBU has been up a day, down a day for the last 8 sessions, with the total net change of the bonds losing 1 full point or -32 32’s or -0.92%.
According to CME data, futures traders are pricing in a nearly 70% chance that the Fed will hold interest rates steady next month, up from 56% a week ago
After August Comes September, And It’s Not Pretty
It’s a bit early to start talking about September, but... on average, data show it’s the worst month for the US stock market by a considerable margin. According to Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick, since 1950, the S&P 500’s average return in the month of September is -0.68%. If you round to one decimal place, September is the only month with an average negative return in the last 75 years. And there have been more “down” than “up” Septembers over this period.
The S&P 500 has only posted positive returns in September 44% of the time since 1950, the lowest positivity rate for any calendar month and the only one below 50%, and the performance appears to be getting worse. In the last decade, the S&P 500’s average September return has been near -2%.
There is a busy economic calendar this week, with the Fed minutes on Wednesday being the biggest event, Weekly Jobless Claims on Thursday, and Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs on Friday, but the US / Iran war continues to be front and center.
One of the things I left out on Friday was to keep an eye on the bonds and oil, and that should be part of every post I do. While it may not seem that way, the ES and NQ have been down 5 of the last 8 sessions, the YM has been down 5 of the last 7, and the RTY has been up 5 of the last 6, making the main rotation over the last 6 sessions back into the small caps.
As of today, there are 11 trading days left in August and 79 calendar days until the midterm elections. I think it’s kind of hard to see through the woods right now.
Not all low-volume days are tough to win, and Friday was a great example of that. Out of the last 8 sessions, there have been 3 where the ES traded above 7800.00, and Friday was the only one to close above 7800.00. Is that significant? I don’t know, but the ES does look like it’s doing a back-and-fill over the last 6 sessions.
Our lean: I can’t rule out selling an early morning pop, but I’m sticking to my guess that the ES moves higher, as long as the bonds are up and oil is down. It may be that the ES and NQ are still in some type of rest mode after the big rally. Don’t forget the ES settled at 7351.25 on 7/29/2026; it’s gone a long way in 13 sessions.
My prop trading firm is offering a great deal on prop accounts. This is one of the largest discounts in the industry. It will also be a perfect time to join the Pit room and is free of cost:
Join the Pit Rroom.
Pit Trading Room | PitBull Traders
Join the Pit Trading Room - A community of traders teaming up to take on the markets together. 100% free forever.
The ES traded in a 7831.75 to 7820.00 range with 122k contracts traded and traded at 7827.75 on Friday’s regular session 9:30 ET open.
After the open, the ES traded 7828.00, sold off 8.75 points down to 7819.25, rallied 11.50 points up to 7830.75 at 10:00, pulled back to 7823.25, made a lower high at 7826.25, and then went on to make 7 lower lows down to 7800.00 at 11:15 as the bonds fell and crude oil rose.
After the low, the ES rallied 10.50 points up to 7810.50 at 12:15, made 3 more lower lows down to 7796.50 at 1:30, rallied 11.00 points up to 7807.50, traded 7800.75 at 3:15, and traded 7804.25 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed buy/sell side imbalance, and traded 7805.50 on the 4:00 cash close.
After 4:00, the ES traded 7799.75 and settled at 7805.00, down 17.50 points or -0.22%. The NQ settled at 30,141.75, down 46.75 points or -0.18%; the YM settled at 53,807, down 128 points or -0.24%; and the RTY settled at 3074.90, up 14.70 points or +0.48% on the day.
For the week, the ES was up 0.4% for its 3rd consecutive weekly gain. The YM fell 0.6%, the NQ was up 0.1%, and the big winner, the RTY, was up 1.09% for the week.
In the end, lower bond prices and higher crude oil danced on my lean for a two-day rally. In terms of the ES’s and NQ’s overall tone, they were slightly weak but also part of a rotation into the RTY. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was shockingly low at 840k. As I said a few weeks ago, families do last-minute vacations in August before the kids go back to school, and it’s more noticeable this year than ever.
MOC Recap: Nasdaq-Led Buy Program Fades Into the Bell
The MOC opened with a sizable $2.2B buy imbalance, driven by $4.8B in buy orders against $2.6B in sells. The initial all-market dollar lean was +64.6%, strong but just below the +66.0% level that typically signals a wholesale buy program. Symbol lean was only +50.9%, showing that the strength was concentrated in larger names rather than broadly distributed across the market.
Nasdaq was the clear leader. Its $1.8B net buy carried a +73.4% dollar lean, firmly in wholesale-buy territory. The S&P 500 was also heavily bid at $2.1B with a +65.6% lean, while NYSE was much more rotational at +55.0%.
Technology drove the program. Information Technology posted a $1.1B net buy with a +69.9% dollar lean. Consumer Discretionary was +$375.8M at +78.8%, Communication Services +$277.7M at +72.3%, Utilities +$145.7M at +83.5%, Consumer Staples +$125.8M at +71.3%, and Energy +$124.3M at +66.1%. Industrials and Real Estate were the primary selling sectors, finishing at -$125.2M and -$24.0M respectively.
The largest buys reinforced the Nasdaq concentration. NVDA led with $506.7M, followed by AAPL $250.8M, GOOGL $200.0M, AVGO $183.8M, AMZN $164.5M, GOOG $141.9M, TSLA $134.1M, MSFT $133.2M, AMD $126.7M and LRCX $121.8M.
Selling was concentrated in INTC at $234.5M, MU $208.1M, META $118.1M, ABBV $91.6M and CSCO $85.7M.
The key story was the fade. The imbalance slipped from $2.2B at 15:51 to $1.0B by 15:54, $405.0M at 15:56 and just $229.0M at 15:59. By 16:00 it had flipped slightly negative to -$14.0M. A strong, concentrated Nasdaq buy program ultimately transitioned into a nearly flat closing print.
Technical Edge
Daily Breadth Data 📊
For Friday, August 14, 2026
• NYSE Breadth: 57% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 55% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 56% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 53% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 50% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 51% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 88 / 75
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 245 / 114
• NYSE TRIN: 0.84
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.81
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For Week Ending Friday, August 14, 2026
• NYSE Breadth: 55% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 59% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 58% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 52% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 57% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 56% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 250 / 172
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 651 / 354
• NYSE TRIN: 0.88
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.94
BTS Levels - (Premium Only)
Today’s Important Economic Events
DTG Room Preview – Monday, August 17, 2026
Market Backdrop
Asian equities are firmer and the dollar is softer, providing a mildly supportive setup for US index futures.
Markets continue to pare back Fed rate-risk expectations, but thin August liquidity could amplify reactions to headlines and data.
Geopolitical developments involving Iran, Ukraine, Israel, the West Bank, and President Trump’s social media posts remain potential volatility catalysts.
Earnings & Key Catalysts
Walmart (WMT) is the major retail earnings focus this week, with investors watching consumer demand, pricing, traffic, inflation, and inventory commentary.
Home Depot (HD) reports Tuesday morning.
Other earnings:
Premarket: BHP
After the bell: FN, PANW
Tuesday morning: AS, HD
META faces a major social media addiction trial Tuesday, creating additional headline risk for large-cap tech.
AI remains a key NQ theme, supported by continued investment and consolidation across the sector.
Economic Calendar
8:30am ET: Empire State Manufacturing Index
10:00am ET: NAHB Housing Market Index
Later this week: housing data, mortgage metrics, and jobless claims will be watched closely for their impact on yields and Fed expectations.
ES Technical Picture
ES traded sideways around 7800 Friday, with volatility continuing to compress.
The 5-day average daily range declined to roughly 50 points.
Upside volatility may remain muted until the market finds a fresh catalyst.
No whale bias: overnight large-trader volume was too light to be significant.
Key ES Levels
Resistance: 7838–7843
A clean break above could turn this area into support.
Primary Support: 7620–7615
50-day MA: 7563.25 — loose support
Additional Supports: 7454–7459, 7313–7308, 7125–7120
