What Can Slow the S&P Bull?

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Those who took our DAL long and the Dow setup yesterday, updates are in the “Open Positions” tab. Nice work.

Our View

The markets are continuing their upward accent. When there’s low volume like we’re seeing now, “thin to win” can take over. We have been talking about it all week and it’s what allows the market to go on the path with the least resistance.

At yesterday's high, the ES was only 5.5 handles off the big figure at 4600. Since June 1, the S&P cash (SPX) has been up 20 of the last 32 sessions and has climbed in 8 of the past 10 weeks.

The Russell and the Dow — this year’s laggards — outperformed the S&P and Nasdaq yesterday, although all four indices did pretty well. The Dow extended its winning streak to seven days, closing at its highest level since April 2022. The Nasdaq is now up 37% in 2023.

The bull has been raging with little to no pullbacks, but how much longer can it go on?

So far this year, the S&P 500 has had 135 trading days, while 73 have been up and 62 have been down. Total up-points are 2,303 and total down-points are 1,587, for a net gain of 716 points. The most consecutive days up is 6 in a row (in June) and the longest stretch of consecutive down days is 4 in a row (also in June).

Yesterday, the SPX closed at 4554, up more than 500 points from the May low. The post-June 26th low was 4328 and since then, the ES has rallied 236 points in the last 3 weeks. The real kicker is the July low at 4385. Since then, the SPX has rallied 170 points.

So far in the first 11 sessions of July, the SPX has been up 7, down 4, and up 104 points. Since last Monday (7 sessions), the SPX is up 156 points and there are 8 sessions left in July.

I also found this interesting, courtesy of @Handelstats: “Last 9 day of July 2022, 7 up 2 down for a 299 point gain.”