- The Opening Print
- Posts
- Can the ES Keep Going Up?
Follow @MrTopStep on Twitter and please share if you find our work valuable!
Our View
Everyone was asking why the ES and NQ rallied so much and depending on who you ask, you probably won't get the answer that I am going to give you. I posted this on Twitter:
$ES $SPY $SPX $NQ $QQQ $RTY $YM $DJIA
What's going on you say?
1) Today is T+2
2) We hit two option collars, the first was at 4465 and the other is right here at 4485.00. (put buyers getting smoked, being forced to cover or buy futures)
3) 11:00 Margin calls
4) I bought… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
— MrTopStep (@MrTopStep)
3:37 PM • Aug 29, 2023
Yes, U.S. consumer confidence moved lower in August and home prices held steady in July, while the JOLTs data showed job openings fell in July, continuing a downward trend.
That all said, the combination of all of the above created one of the largest buy programs in several months. As I have said many times, with volumes so low and the crowd short, the algos did what they do best: Squeeze the markets higher.
The question now is, will the ES keep going up into this week's personal-consumption expenditures price (PCE) index and the non-farm payrolls report?
I want to explain how “My Leans” are meant to work. A lean of “sell the early rallies and buy the pullbacks” is a long bias, and “buying the early weakness and selling the rallies” is a bearish bias.
One of the problems with this is a trend day. As you know, some days I just say buy weakness or sell rallies, but it's really an odds thing; the day I go with just “buy the pullbacks” ends up a day I should have said, “sell the rallies and buy the pullbacks.”
Either way, there was a really good pullback from the early 4447.25 high at 10:31 down to the 4426.75 level at 11:08 — I am referencing Monday’s session — and there were a few 10 to 12-point selloffs, but you had to be fast on all the pullbacks because just as quick as they fell, the futures would go bid immediately.