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Bye Bye June, Bye Bye Q2
Danny Riley
June 30, 2025
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Our View
The major event for the day is the close of June and the end of the quarter. The economic calendar is very light today. Looking into the first week of July, we have ISM PMI, Jolts. The week is shortened as the U.S. celebrates its original No Kings Day on the 4th of July. Beware that the Friday holiday pulls the jobs numbers ahead to Thursday. Expectations are around 110K new jobs.
After today, the week should be light. There was a 38B equities for bonds rebalance needing to be done by the end of the month. I expect a lot of that was accomplished during the ± 50 point swing on Friday afternoon.
Summer trading will kick off after today, so lower volatility ahead, with the exception of volatility in the trade negotiations and peace talks. There should be an exodus this afternoon as people begin to head out to their weekend celebration spots.
Watch for trade to lighten up this afternoon, and that could make the close volatile if there are any last-minute large trades to unwind.
In our Lean this morning, there is a study by Handelstats on the last day of June. If you don’t get the premium version, you can get a free trial here for 2 weeks:
SPX
So we say goodbye to June. The tag team months of May and June have fought off the fears of tariffs, slowing economies, and wars to take the markets to new highs. Today the duo hand off to July which we expect to treat these first few days this week with consolidating caution. The markets are in need of a rest, and the weekly Trin numbers are approaching 2.
LAST DAY!
MiM and Daily Recap
The S&P 500 futures opened the overnight Globex session at 6197.50 and maintained a modest upward bias into the early morning hours. The initial premarket high developed at 6220.75 at 08:00 ET, a 13.50-point gain from the prior close. However, selling pressure soon emerged, and the market slid to an early low of 6202.00 by 09:30 ET, marking an 18.75-point decline (-0.30%) from that premarket high just ahead of the regular session open.
As cash trading commenced, buyers swiftly regained control, propelling ES up to 6230.00 at 10:12 ET, representing a sharp 28-point rebound (+0.45%) from the low. After this surge, the contract experienced two successive pullbacks: first to 6220.25 at 10:24, trimming 9.75 points, then another shallow dip to 6220.75 at 10:57 (with a shallow peak in between). Despite these consolidations, the market maintained a firm tone and pressed higher again into midday.
A renewed push lifted ES to 6239.00 by 12:30 ET, the session's highest print during regular hours and an 18.25-point advance (+0.29%) from the late morning trough. This attempt to extend gains ultimately lost steam, and by 13:12, the market had eased back to 6234.50 before continuing a deeper decline. As the afternoon unfolded, selling accelerated materially. Prices gave way to a decisive breakdown that culminated in the day's lowest reading of 6183.25 by 14:51, representing a sharp 51.25-point reversal (-0.82%) off the midday high.
Following the flush, the market recovered moderately into late afternoon, reaching 6226.75 at 15:57 before settling into a final pullback to 6216.75 by 16:27. The regular session closed at 6223.25, securing a 19-point gain (+0.31%) from the session open. On a cash-to-cash basis, ES advanced 27 points or 0.44% relative to the prior day's close. The cleanup session was quieter, seeing only a minor drift, and wrapped up at 6220.75.
Overall, volume was solid, with 1,062,488 contracts traded during the regular session and total daily volume reaching 1,267,623 across all sessions.
Market Tone & Notable Factors
The tone throughout Friday's trade was mixed but ultimately constructive, as early weakness resolved in favor of an intraday rally that later reversed into a forceful afternoon decline. The premarket recovery set the stage for initial optimism, but the afternoon liquidation wave underscored persistent caution among participants despite the positive open-to-close performance.
Notably, the Market-on-Close imbalance data revealed significant selling pressure into the final hour. At 15:59 ET, the total dollar imbalance was measured at -$2.615 billion, heavily skewed to the sell side. Although the symbol imbalance registered -60.3%, it narrowly missed the -66% threshold that would have signaled an extreme directional bias. Nonetheless, this persistent imbalance likely contributed to the choppy and defensive tone into the final settlement prints.
Despite the strong midday high, the closing action was unable to retest earlier peaks, leaving the session with a modest gain but well off the highs. The combination of solid volume and the large MOC sell imbalance suggests traders remained cautious into quarter-end flows. Looking ahead, traders may focus on whether the 6200 area continues to serve as a near-term support zone or gives way to further profit-taking pressure as new positioning emerges in July.
Technical Edge
Fair Values for June 30, 2025:
SP: 50.49
NQ: 213.4
Dow: 297.74
Daily Breadth Data 📊
For Friday, June 27, 2025
• NYSE Breadth: 52% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 42% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 45% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 55% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 48% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 51% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 125 / 19
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 238 / 87
• NYSE TRIN: 1.08
• Nasdaq TRIN: 1.25
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For the Week Ending June 27, 2025
• NYSE Breadth: 58% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 60% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 59% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 72% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 66% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 68% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 216 / 80
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 465 / 275
• NYSE TRIN: 1.86
• Nasdaq TRIN: 1.24
BTS Levels - (Premium Only)
Last Day!
Calendars
Today’s Economic Calendar
This Week’s Important Economic Events
Today’s Earnings
Recent Earnings
Room Summaries:
Polaris Trading Group Summary - Friday, June 27, 2025
Market Overview and Strategy
Morning Focus:
David reiterated that it was a Capital Preservation Day, advising traders to be selective and disciplined.Bullish Scenarios were mapped out early:
ES: Sustained bid above 6190 targeting 6210–6215.
NQ: Above 22675 targeting 22730–22765.
DTS Briefing scored “direct hits” on both ES and NQ initial upside targets, showcasing strong alignment between the plan and price action.
Executed Trades & Positive Outcomes
Open Range Trades:
CL (Crude Oil): Open Range Long Target 1 was filled early.
NQ: Open Range Long triggered and ALL TARGETS fulfilled.
ES: Long triggers aligned with the plan and sustained strength.
Cycle Day Targets:
CD1 Penetration Target (6237) was achieved by midday, capping a solid morning performance.
David emphasized staying LONG ONLY throughout the trend, reminding traders to align with the Primary Directive—always trade in alignment with the dominant force.
Afternoon Volatility:
A fast drop triggered a Bear Scenario, targeting 6175–6170, illustrating how quickly the market can shift.
Despite this, a large $1.3 billion MOC buy imbalance fueled a recovery back to 6215 VWAP, confirming bulls retained control by the close.
Lessons and Key Reminders
Stay in Alignment:
The Primary Directive was reinforced: Trade with the dominant trend, not against it.Patience and Discipline:
Several members, like John B., chose to Sit On Hands (SOH) if setups didn’t meet their rules, highlighting the importance of waiting for high-quality entries.Adaptability:
Afternoon volatility (“slippy soap routine”) reminded everyone that strong trends can reverse, and managing risk with hard stops is essential.Chart Blending and Confirmation:
Techniques like blending entries on the bull stacker and confirming with ATR4/EMA alignment were discussed to improve precision.
Overall
The session was highly successful, especially the morning trades:
Multiple targets hit with precision.
Clear directional bias (“LONGS ONLY”) kept traders focused.
A late-day pullback tested discipline, but ultimately the bullish narrative prevailed.
David signed off wishing everyone a restful weekend, noting that Monday could bring “Window Dressing” and potential new all-time highs.
DTG Room Preview – Monday, June 30, 2025
Quarter-End Surge: Stock futures are higher as the S&P 500 (+4% in June), Nasdaq (+5.5%), and Dow (+3.5%) head for fresh record highs to close one of the most volatile half-years in recent memory.
Trade Headlines:
Trump’s July 9 tariff deadline approaches; a China trade framework is in place, and India extended talks to finalize a deal.
Canada scrapped its digital tax hours before implementation to restart stalled trade negotiations.
Trump floated maintaining 25% tariffs on Japanese cars, citing unfair practices.
Fiscal Policy: Senate scrambles to meet Trump’s July 4 deadline for a $4.5 trillion tax cut bill, estimated to add $3.3 trillion to the deficit over 10 years. Votes on amendments begin this morning.
Economic Calendar: Light day with Chicago PMI at 9:45am ET; Fed speakers Bostic (10am) and Goolsbee (1pm). No significant earnings reports.
Market Technicals & Volatility:
ES volatility remains elevated (5-day ADR: ~69 points) but trending lower if the rally continues.
Whale positioning skews bullish on light overnight volume.
Key ES levels: Resistance ~6388–6393, Support ~6046–6049, 6007–6010, 5614–5619.
ES remains in the middle of its short-term uptrend channel, giving room for both sides to operate.
