Bulls Remain in Control Amid Short Trading Week

Follow @MrTopStep on Twitter and please share if you find our work valuable!

Our View

The S&P has rallied for three straight weeks through yesterday’s close, rising 10.4% over that time. That is its largest three-week point and percentage gains since April and June 2020, respectively, when the market was rebounding from the initial shock of the spreading Covid-19 pandemic. Those latest gains put the S&P 500 up 8.34% in the month of November alone, and up more than 17.74% since the start of the year.

I understand low volume can also be a bad omen for the rally, but right now that's not the message. This is a very historically strong week and as mentioned above, the lower holiday volumes are favoring the upside and I don't think that's going to change. 

A lot of the schools are closed and people are using that time to travel. According to AAA, 55 million Americans will travel for the Thanksgiving holiday, which is up two percent from last year. A small portion of those travelers will be going by airplane. 

"Nearly 4.7 million Americans will be flying to their holiday destinations," said Ragina Ali, from AAA. 

There are definitely a lot of investors and traders in the 55 million and volume should tick lower all week. Will there be some downside raids? I think so, but I think overall the ES goes higher throughout the short holiday week.