A Bullish Finish to the Week?

Keep an eye on the week 2 options expiration

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Our View

It's been over three full years since the outbreak of Covid-19. The Chinese may deny COVID-19's origin, but they will never convince me that's the truth because my friend Kun from China told me there was a virus in China that was resistant to drugs at the beginning of November 2019. 

Instead of shutting down air traffic, the Chinese allowed its people to fly all over the world — spreading the virus — and continued to let its people travel all over the world as the pandemic continued to spread. 

The virus quickly hit Europe due to all the Chinese workers, like the Italian garment industry, which was decimated by Covid. As US cities shut down, I knew there were going to be serious implications, from violent street protests to shutting down the economy, schools, businesses, airlines, sports, restaurants, theaters — everything.

You can't tell me the Chinese state planners didn't know it was the best way to take down the No. 1 world economy, the USA. We were already in a war of words over the constant militarization of the South China Sea, currency manipulation, and the theft of the US's intellectual property. Then COVID-19 only magnified the problems. 

I think the damage COVID has caused will be here forever. I can't pretend to know everything but, when we grew up we wanted to work, we wanted to make money and provide for our families. But nowadays there are things like Woke and/or DEI, social justice where you go on vacation for two weeks and you come back and someone is living in your house. Like BLM, I think a lot of this will come to pass, but I also think the general public has been damaged by health or money problems. I'm not exactly sure where I am going with this other than to say we live in a crazy, mixed-up world that is constantly evolving, the question is into what?  

To keep it on track with stocks, check out this article below, which I found interesting:

Our Lean — Danny’s Trade

This is Danny Riley’s personal trading plan for the day.

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MiM and Daily Recap

ES Recap

After finishing strong on Monday, the ES sold off down to 4771.50 on Globex at 9:25 AM and opened Tuesday's regular session at 4773.00. After the open, the ES double topped at 4776.25 at 9:37, sold off down to 4767.50 at 9:47, chopped up and down, and then rallied up to 4783.75. From there, it sold off just under the VWAP down to 4775.75 at 11:01 and then up to another new high 4804.00 at 1:05, and sold off down to a 4785.75 double bottom just above the VWAP at 1:35. 

After the pullback, the ES traded up to a lower high at 4801.25 at 1:56, traded down to the 4797.00, rallied up to another lower high at 4800.25 and back-and-filled for the next 60 minutes. From there, it traded down to the VWAP at 4786.25 at 3:05, rallied up to another lower high at 4797.25 and then traded down to 4789.00 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $1.35 billion to sell. The ES popped back up to 4769.75 at 3:56 and traded 4793 on the 4:00 cash close and settled at 4790.50, down 7.5 points or 0.13% on the day. 

In the end, they burned the short sellers after the down open, with the NQ leading the way. In terms of the ES's overall tone, the ES initially remained weak, it looked like the funds were rotating out of the small caps and buying the Nasdaq, but when the NQ kept going up the ES joined the party. In terms of the ES's overall trade, 261k traded on Globex and 1.079 million traded on the day session for a total of 1.401 million contracts traded. 

Technical Edge

  • NYSE Breadth: 24% Upside Volume

  • Nasdaq Breadth: 31% Upside Volume

  • Advance/Decline: 29% Advance

  • VIX: ~13

S&P 500 — ES Futures

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Guest Post

PTG / Taylor 3 Day Cycle

Author: David D Dube’ (a.k.a. PTGDavid)

Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3):  Markets unfolded as outlined in prior DTS Briefing 1.9.24. Stated: " We’ll be anticipating a Market After Trend Day (MATD) with bias favoring buyside on pullbacks." Prior range was 36 handles on 1.296M contracts exchanged. 

Below are some key excerpts from the PTG Trading Room:

  • PTGDavid : (8:50:57 AM) : Per DTS >>> "Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4790, initially targets 4775 – 4770 zone."

  • PTGDavid : (8:51:04 AM) : 4775 tagged! TYVM

  • PTGDavid : (10:00:55 AM) : Buyers responding from initial target zone.

  • PTGDavid : (10:06:00 AM) : MATD morning as posted in DTS...

  • PTGDavid : (10:19:45 AM) : As I stated...Target Zones are Targets first and potential Reversal Zones second...

  • PTGDavid : (10:20:11 AM) : Price has now reversed from TZ...Bulls back in firm-control

 

 

 …Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1

This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Normal Decline for Cycle Day 1 Low projects (4770). This level has been touched and responded to during the prior session. We will mark as KEY SUPPORT PIVOT should there be a retest, as bulls will need to defend. Upside objective measures between 4815 - 4825 zone for this cycle. As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4785, initially targets 4805 – 4810 zone. 

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4785, initially targets 4770 – 4765 zone.

PVA High Edge = 4799       PVA Low Edge = 4781         Prior POC = 4792

*****The 3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.

For more detailed information for both bullish and bearish projected targets, please visit: PTG 3 Day Cycle and/or reference the Cycle Spreadsheet below:

Link to access full Cycle Spreadsheet  > > Cycle Day 1 (CD1)

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2024 (H) Contract

Thanks for reading,

PTGDavid

Economic Calendar

Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.
Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!

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