Breaking Down Friday's Late-Day Surge

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I admit to having a rough time writing and trading the ES over the last few weeks and it doesn't make me happy. While I didn't catch the down move, I also didn't get bearish after it sold off — which would have been the ultimate mistake. Going into Friday's number, no one was talking about the options expiration and for good reason because the 0DTE options have not produced much volatility lately. 

Due to the quieter, low volume expirations over the last few months, all that changed Friday when the markets exploded higher into the close. Last November, 0DTE were the hottest thing going — even Goldman Saches complained about them as they extended to the exchange-traded fund market in 2023. 

Now the 0DTE in the commodity markets, gold, silver, oil, natural gas and long-term Treasuries. What we know is when the markets are moving, 0DTE is involved. I said in the MrTopStep room late when the ES shot up, gamma was clearly part of the move and you could see it in the S&P futures volume. 

This week there are 16 economic releases and zero Fed speak with the big number of the week coming on Friday with the monthly jobs report.