Bots Front-Run Trump, Missiles Fly, and the PitBull Smells a Friday Flush

It feels like all the problems are now circling the financial wagons in the U.S. For months, if not over the last year, there have been thousands of articles written about the dangers of the spiraling debt and the Treasury markets, and it looks like things are coming home to roost.

While Trump says he doesn't want to put troops on the ground in Iran, the U.S. is rapidly deploying special ops forces, fighter squadrons, and weaponry to the Middle East, while placing U.S.- and U.K.-based bomber aircraft on high alert to provide Trump with expanded military options against Iran.

To support the potential escalation and treat potential casualties, over 150 military medics have also been dispatched to Germany's Landstuhl Regional Medical Center, the primary facility for combat injuries sustained in the region.

I don't know what to think, but what I do know is Iran's missiles are extremely accurate, and we are going into the weekend with a lot of risk-off/liquidation going on.

I asked the MTS chat late in the day if we saw the PitBull’s Thursday low before today's expiration, and no one had anything to say.

Our lean: I think the public is spooked, but if oil falls and the Treasuries rally, we could see a bounce. But there also could be some risk-off late in the day.

Get instant access to our partners’ real-time market data and insights not available anywhere else. Here is last night's Founder’s note getting you ready for today’s market and explaining the constraints in yesterday’s market. - MrTopStep

Founder's Note:

PM Note

The stock market declined Thursday amid a selloff in big tech and a surge in oil prices. Alphabet fell 7% after raising its CapEx spending forecast, while Tesla tumbled 16% as profits declined despite strong EV deliveries. Meanwhile, crude oil traded above $90, 28% higher compared to the beginning of July.

SPX traded within a 99 bps intraday range and closed at 7,408 (-1.2%), below our Risk Pivot at 7,480. The August/September SPX put spreads highlighted in the AM Note performed well during the session. For example, the August 7,300/7,100 put spread gained 53% on the day.

The volatility complex moved sharply higher, with the VIX closing at 18.69 (+12.3%) and VVIX at 102.17 (+6.9%). With yesterday marking July VIX expiration, the roll in VIX positioning and expiration-related flows likely contributed to the increase in equity market volatility.

The intraday selloff was driven by approximately -$4B in S&P equities flow, with the heaviest selling occurring during the first 90 minutes before flows flattened into the close. Despite the selling pressure, our SpotGamma Implied 1-Day Move Low at 7,370 held throughout the session. In addition, 0DTE put selling helped provide support for the market.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, we will be closely monitoring the 7,300 zone. As today's 0DTE put selling positions expire, continued demand for downside puts could shift dealer gamma back into negative territory, increasing the potential for larger price swings.

Approximately 75% of S&P Equities HIRO flow came from the Magnificent Seven. As a result, the basket of Mag 7 stocks experienced its worst session since the April 2025 tariff-driven selloff. The negative delta flow was driven by a combination of longer-dated call selling (orange line) and put buying (blue line), suggesting traders reduced upside exposure while adding downside hedges.

Across the S&P 500, HIRO registered relatively light net flow of -$1.4B on the day. The flow was primarily driven by longer-dated put buying and 0DTE call activity. As the dispersion trade reversed toward long index volatility and short single-stock volatility, COR1M jumped 71% to close at 7.3.

Fixed-strike implied volatility generally increased by 0.6-1.0 volatility points across the curve, with the exception of the July 27 expiration.

After the close, Intel reported better-than-expected second-quarter earnings. The stock rose 7% and was trading near 107 at the time of writing. We highlighted the constructive options positioning ahead of earnings in Sunday's Note, as negative dealer gamma above 98 suggested that a breakout could accelerate if the stock rallied.

INTC's Key Gamma Strike is 110, with the Call Wall at 120. We will continue monitoring real-time options flow through HIRO tomorrow to help identify potential post-earnings trading opportunities.

All TenTen Capital LLC DBA SpotGamma materials, information, and presentations are for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations. Futures, foreign currency and options trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing one's financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. VIEW FULL RISK DISCLOSURE https://spotgamma.com/model-faq/disclaimer/



ES Levels

The bull/bear line for the ES is 7459.25. ES is currently trading near 7448.75, slightly below this key level, which keeps the immediate bias bearish unless buyers reclaim and hold above 7459.25.

Below the bull/bear line, initial support is 7445.00. A sustained break beneath 7445.00 would target 7411.75, followed by 7404.50 and today’s lower range target at 7399.25. If sellers gain acceptance below 7399.25, the next major downside objective is 7342.50.

On the upside, reclaiming 7459.25 would improve the short-term tone and open a move toward 7519.25, today’s upper range target. Additional resistance is located at 7530.25, 7549.50, and 7576.00.

Overall, the ES remains bearish below 7459.25. Bulls need to recover that level to stabilize the market, while a failure at 7445.00 could accelerate selling toward the 7411.75–7399.25 support zone.

NQ Levels

The bull/bear line for the NQ is at 28715.50. NQ is currently trading near 28703.25, placing price just below this key pivot and keeping the immediate bias slightly bearish. Bulls need to reclaim and hold above 28715.50 to improve the intraday outlook.

Above the bull/bear line, initial resistance is at 28821.75. A sustained break above that level would open the door to 29100.00 and 29121.25, today’s upper range target. Additional resistance sits at 29282.50, followed by 29503.00.

On the downside, support begins at 28620.75. Failure to hold this level would expose 28432.50, followed by 28309.75, today’s lower range target. A decisive break below 28309.75 could accelerate selling toward 27927.75.

Overall, NQ remains vulnerable while trading below 28715.50. Holding above 28620.75 keeps the market in a narrow decision zone, but acceptance below that support favors a move toward 28432.50 and 28309.75. A bullish shift requires a reclaim of 28715.50, followed by strength above 28821.75.

Polaris Trading Group Summary - For Thursday, July 23, 2026

Thursday developed into a highly volatile Cycle Day 2, with the market producing significantly more range expansion than the normal rotational session initially expected. David’s preparation and key reference levels proved especially valuable as the market moved from early weakness into a sharp midday recovery before becoming vulnerable again late in the session.

Overnight and Premarket

• Both overnight Daily Trade Strategy targets were fulfilled:

  • 7545 upside target

  • 7495 downside target

• David anticipated additional morning weakness and targeted 7475.

• The 7475 target was reached shortly afterward, providing an early positive result.

• David warned that the session had increased potential for a long-liquidation event.

Opening Structure

• David defined the initial trading sandbox as:

  • 7445–7450 support zone

  • 7475–7480 resistance zone

• The initial bias favored buying dips, but David stressed the need to remain flexible.

• Selling pressure increased as the morning progressed.

• Lower highs and weakening bounces suggested buyers were losing control.

• Nasdaq weakness helped confirm the broader risk-off tone.

Range Expansion and Long Liquidation

• By 11:00 a.m., the market had already produced a 110-point range.

• The average range was approximately 80 points, confirming meaningful range expansion.

• David identified 7424.50 as the first Initial Balance target.

• He also highlighted 7415, the previous month’s volume point of control, as a major reference.

• The market continued lower into that important support area.

Key Reversal at 7415

• The 7415 monthly VPOC became the major turning point of the session.

• David initiated a BLT long probe as price reacted from the level.

• The trade was managed as a probe rather than an aggressive commitment.

• Buyers responded strongly from the higher-time-frame reference.

• The market began reclaiming levels lost during the morning liquidation.

Midday Recovery

• Bulls needed to reclaim the 7437–7441 zone to strengthen the recovery.

• David then called for a move toward 7450.

• After a back test near 7425, buyers responded.

• The market reached the 7450 target, completing the primary morning objective.

• David identified 7460–7465 as the next potential upside zone.

• The A10 setup, which had recently struggled, also produced a successful trade after lunch.

Positive Trades and Calls

• Overnight 7545 and 7495 targets were both achieved.

• Premarket 7475 downside target was reached quickly.

• The BLT long from the 7415 monthly VPOC captured the session’s most important reversal.

• The midday 7450 recovery target was fulfilled.

• Room members also reported successful scalps around:

  • Sandbox boundaries

  • ATR reference levels

  • Short-term resistance zones

Afternoon and Closing Action

• David warned that price looked vulnerable to a closing selloff.

• The market repeatedly struggled near the 7437 area.

• ES and NQ remained sharply lower, while crude oil posted a strong gain.

• Market-on-close indications shifted toward a sizable sell imbalance.

• Short covering prevented a clean late-day collapse.

• Price ultimately closed near midpoint VWAP.

• David described the session as a wild Cycle Day 2.

Lessons Learned

• Preparation matters: The overnight and early downside targets were highly accurate.

• Flexibility is essential: A rotational expectation quickly became an expanded-range liquidation session.

• Higher-time-frame references matter: The 7415 monthly VPOC provided the best reversal location of the day.

• Use probes at uncertain turning points: David entered small near 7415 rather than overcommitting.

• Watch the quality of bounces: Repeated lower highs and weaker rebounds signaled continued liquidation pressure.

• Expectations are not guarantees: Cycle Day tendencies provide a framework, but real-time price action must guide decisions.

• Risk management remains critical: Traders who stayed patient and respected key levels were best positioned to benefit.

DTG Room Preview – Friday, July 24, 2026

Macro & Geopolitics

• U.S. index futures face fresh pressure as a broad new tariff regime takes effect across 60 trading partners.

• The move increases uncertainty around global growth, supply chains, and possible retaliation.

• Tensions with Iran are also keeping oil, inflation expectations, and energy-linked volatility in focus.

Technology & AI

• The “Magnificent 7” lost nearly $800 billion in market value as investors questioned the scale and returns of AI-related spending.

• Software, cloud, and semiconductor stocks may remain volatile as the market reassesses earnings durability.

• Intel’s earnings beat and AMD’s latest AI infrastructure roadmap could support selective strength within semiconductors.

ES Technical Outlook

• Volatility has expanded sharply, with the five-day average daily range rising to 91.75 points.

• Whale positioning is leaning modestly bullish ahead of the Flash PMI data.

• The broader technical picture remains fragile after ES tested the 7415–7420 trendline.

Key ES Levels

• Resistance: 7536, 7621–7626, 7780–7855

• Support: 7415–7420, 7160–7155

• A confirmed break below 7415–7420 could open the door toward 7160–7155 and potentially below 7200 next week.

• The declining 50-day moving average near 7536 remains an important hurdle for bulls.

Economic Calendar

• 9:45 a.m. ET: Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs

• 10:00 a.m. ET: New Home Sales

Bottom Line

• The session is likely to be driven by tariffs, geopolitical headlines, oil prices, and continued weakness in AI-linked technology stocks.

• Traders should expect elevated headline sensitivity and wider intraday ranges.