Beware of The Fed Tape Bombs

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I'm going to keep this short. There are only 7 economic releases this week, but there is an overload of Fed speakers. 12 Fed governors speak and there’s a boatload of S&P earnings. 

Jobs FRYday was predictable. Volume of over 250k contracts changed hands during Globex and there was a big juicy open to buy. The rule is to buy the open and hold all day and it worked like a charm. It doesn't always happen like that, but when they do they tend to be big. 

The ES has now rallied about 825 points off its November low. I was joking around in the trading room that the 'ES will never go down' — but of course, it will. 

The 5000 to 5020 level is going to be tough and February tends to be a more bearish month on a seasonal basis. Over the past 10 years, it has been the second-worst month of the year, averaging a loss of 0.65%. Over the past 20 years, it has been the third-worst month of the year, averaging a loss of 0.36%. 

As I have said many times, picking tops is one of the hardest trades you can make... but if I had a boatload of stocks that were going my way, I would sell some of them. I am not talking about blowing them out — I'm talking about paring them down by 20% to 25% and hope you are wrong about selling them because it's a high-class problem. 

As you know, I’m a bull but I ain't no fool with the markets up so much in the last 3 months. If I'm right, you buy them back later in the month.