One has to question, with all the big up and down moves, how much of the $183 billion rebalance has already been done. Also, today is the week 4 FRYday opening expiration, and with everyone all up ... well, you know what I am going to say. I think we rally, and with everyone all hedged up and running all the downside stops, now it’s time to run the upside stops.

Remember my saying: no stops go untouched in the S&P, and today we will put that to the test. The markets may rally, but they remain very unstable. 7350 remains key support.

Today we will be using @HandelStats levels ... best of luck today, and have a good weekend!

Download Rich’s Levels for Today: https://t2r4.com/uploads/2026/06/26/Stock-Indices-latest_-_2026-06-26T001250_063516.pdf

Get instant access to our partners’ real-time market data and insights not available anywhere else. Here is last night's Founder’s note getting you ready for today’s market and explaining the constraints in yesterday’s market. - MrTopStep

Founder's Note:

PM Note

The stock market whipsawed on Thursday following Micron earnings and PCE data. With quarter-end rebalancing underway, tech stocks were mixed. Mag 7 names came under pressure, with Apple leading the decline and tumbled 6%. Meanwhile, semiconductor stocks extended their recent strength, led by Micron, which rallied 16% on the session.

SPX traded in a 129 bps range and closed at 7,358, below our Risk Pivot level of 7,380. Meanwhile, VIX closed at 18.9 (+1.4%) and VVIX closed at 91.2 (-4.6%), suggesting that volatility hedging activity remained relatively muted.

As we noted in the AM Note, a break below 7,380 had the potential to trigger a sharp move lower as dealer positioning flipped into negative gamma. That dynamic played out early in the session, with SPX falling 78 bps after breaking 7,380 during the first 30 minutes of trading. After that move lower, the market largely consolidated for the rest of the day.

SPX HIRO also had a volatile session, with readings moving from roughly flat to -7B and then recovering to -2B delta. The flow was dominated by longer-dated put buying (blue line) alongside 0DTE put selling (light blue line).

Fixed-strike implied volatility declined across the board, with expiries ahead of the July 4th holiday falling by roughly 1.0 to 2.5 vol points on the day. With a three-day weekend approaching next week, we will be watching to see whether volatility sellers step up again.

Despite weakness in the Mag 7 complex, we did see capital rotate into other sectors, particularly healthcare.

We screened for healthcare names trading near key SpotGamma levels, which could present interesting setups if the sector is poised for a further tactical run.

Within that group, JNJ and ISRG stood out with both elevated IV Rank and elevated Risk Reversal Rank, while MRK and LLY showed moderate IV Rank but elevated Risk Reversal Rank.

On the other side of the quadrant, UNH, ABBV, CVS, and MOH showed moderate IV Rank paired with lower Risk Reversal Rank.

Take AbbVie (ABBV) as an example. The stock broke out above its 230 Key Delta Strike / Key Gamma Strike and closed at 243 (+4%) on the day, still below the 250 Call Wall. We also note that ABBV’s +24M HIRO reading was the highest of the past 30 days, driven primarily by longer-dated call buying.

ABBV is now up 14% YTD and has a market cap of roughly $430 billion.



ES Levels

The bull/bear line for the ES is at 7431.25. This is the key level bulls need to reclaim to shift momentum back to a more constructive tone. As long as ES remains below 7431.25, the market stays under pressure.

Currently, ES is trading around 7385.75, which puts price below the bull/bear line and below the prior close of 7423.25. Immediate resistance is at 7390.50, then 7423.25 and 7431.25. If ES can reclaim 7431.25 and hold above it, the next upside levels are 7476.25, 7496.00, and 7502.25, which is today’s upper range target.

On the downside, support comes in at 7360.25, which is today’s lower range target. A break below 7360.25 opens the door for a deeper push toward 7313.75 and then 7293.25.

Overall, ES remains bearish below 7431.25. Bulls need to reclaim 7431.25 to stabilize the chart, while failure to hold above 7360.25 keeps downside pressure active.

NQ Levels

The bull/bear line for the NQ is at 29746.75. This is the key level that must be reclaimed for bullish momentum to resume. As long as NQ remains below 29746.75, sellers keep control and rallies should be treated with caution.

Currently, NQ is trading around 29375.75, which puts price below the bull/bear line and confirms a bearish tone. Immediate support sits at 29295.75, followed by 29132.00, today’s lower range target. If 29132.00 breaks, downside pressure could extend toward 28553.75.

On the upside, first resistance is 29724.75 to 29746.75. This is the first major decision area, with the prior close and bull/bear line stacked together. If NQ can reclaim and hold above 29746.75, the next upside levels are 30006.75, 30089.75, and 30263.75.

Today’s upper range target is 30361.50. A sustained move above 30263.75 would open the door for a test of 30361.50, but bulls need acceptance above the bull/bear line first before that becomes the higher-probability path.

Overall, NQ remains bearish below 29746.75. The main downside focus is 29295.75 and 29132.00, while any recovery must first reclaim 29746.75 before buyers can target 30006.75, 30089.75, and 30361.50.

Polaris Trading Group Summary - For Thursday, June 25

Thursday’s session was a high-volatility Cycle Day 3 that began with bulls in control, quickly shifted into a sharp liquidation break, and then rewarded traders who respected PTG’s key levels and waited for structured opportunities.

Opening Framework

• David noted that the overnight price action followed the DTS Briefing, with price holding bid and reaching the 7495 target.

• The day was identified as Cycle Day 3.

• The Positive 3-Day Cycle was already secured.

• Early control belonged to the bulls as long as price held the 7465 Line in the Sand / Fulcrum.

Key Shift: 7465 Line in the Sand Breaks

• After the open, price faded from the Cycle Day 3 high area.

• The violation of 7465 LIS changed the tone of the session.

• David noted that the break opened the “trap door” for a decline.

• Downside projections were mapped to approximately 7418–7404, based on Cycle Day 1 average decline measurements.

Long Liquidation Break

• The market sold off hard early in the session.

• David labeled the move a Long Liquidation Break.

• Price fulfilled and exceeded the CD1 average decline projections.

• Momentum continued to favor sellers during the early breakdown.

Positive Trade Highlight: DLMB Reaction

• The Lower D-Level Money Box came into play after the selloff.

• The room recognized the setup as price reacted from the level.

• DanV posted that the “DLMB strikes again,” and David echoed the same.

• Barbara noted she caught the bull stacker.

• Bruce reported that the second target was hit.

• David congratulated the room with “Well played.”

Important Risk Reminder

• David warned that there was a lot of “road-kill” from the sharp selloff and hard reversal.

• He described the environment with a High Surf / Gale Warning tone.

• The session was not suited for casual participation or overtrading.

• Fast liquidation and reversal conditions required discipline, patience, and respect for risk.

Educational Themes

• The room discussed whether Cycle Day 3 creates a downside lean.

• The key lesson was that cycle context matters, but traders still need confirmation from price action and levels.

• There was discussion around:

  • Absorption of buyers and sellers

  • Tapering

  • Tails

  • Single prints

  • Low-volume areas

  • Market profile structure

• John B added that he views single prints similarly to LVNs.

Midday Market Condition

• David identified the session as a “Range-Runner” Day Type.

• Heading into lunch, price began chopping around multi-day POCs.

• David said there was not much of an edge.

• The key instruction was: do not “Diddle in the Middle.”

Late-Day Notes

• Near the close, David noted a $2 billion MOC buy imbalance.

• Despite the buy imbalance, the broader tone remained unstable and erratic.

• David closed with the comment: “This is a maniac market.”

Main Lessons Learned

• Respect the Line in the Sand; the 7465 break was the major tone change.

• Use DTS levels and cycle projections as decision-support tools.

• Do not assume direction from cycle day alone; wait for price confirmation.

• The best trade came from structure: the DLMB reaction.

• After the clean morning move, the midday chop offered little edge.

• Protect profits and avoid forcing trades in the middle of the range.

DTG Room Preview – Friday, June 26

Macro Backdrop

• Fresh PCE inflation data showed:

  • Monthly PCE up 0.4%

  • Core PCE up 0.3%

• Both readings matched expectations but reinforced the sticky-inflation narrative.

• The data kept potential Fed tightening in play.

• Q1 GDP was revised higher to 2.1%.

• Personal consumption was revised down to 0.5%, raising questions about consumer durability.

• The market may remain highly sensitive to upcoming jobs data.

Fed and Rate-Path Risk

• Rate-path repricing remains a primary volatility driver.

• The Fed is likely to stay patient but vigilant.

• Scheduled Fed speakers:

  • 10:30 a.m. ET: NY Fed’s John Williams

  • 11:30 a.m. ET: Minneapolis Fed’s Neel Kashkari

• Any hawkish language could increase volatility.

Equity Futures and Tech Weakness

• Stock futures were under pressure premarket.

• Megacap tech remained weak after prior-session losses in:

  • Apple

  • Nvidia

  • Microsoft

  • Amazon

  • Meta

• Nasdaq had declined for four straight sessions.

• Broad tech selling outweighed strength in chip names.

• The key question was whether semiconductor strength could offset megacap weakness.

Apple and Semiconductor Divergence

• Apple remained a major drag after a 6%+ decline.

• Apple price hikes appeared to weigh on sentiment across the chip supply chain.

• Micron’s strong earnings supported semiconductor names.

• Apple weakness overshadowed the chip rally.

• This created a fractured tech tape:

  • Chip strength

  • Megacap weakness

• Apple stabilization was an important watch item for index direction.

AI and IPO Sentiment

• OpenAI was reportedly considering delaying its IPO to 2027.

• SpaceX’s rocky debut added caution around AI-related IPOs.

• AI infrastructure costs and resource constraints remain concerns.

• Water scarcity was noted as a possible risk to AI data-center expansion.

• AI-sector risk premiums may be rising.

• This is not an immediate index mover, but it may affect sentiment toward AI leadership names.

Political and Energy Risk

• President Trump called for the DOJ to investigate Big Oil donors over alleged price gouging.

• This introduced potential headline volatility for energy markets.

• Policy or regulatory follow-through could affect:

  • Energy stocks

  • Crude pricing

  • Inflation expectations

Calendar and Catalysts

• No corporate earnings of interest today.

• Economic calendar:

  • 8:30 a.m. ET: Goods Trade Balance

  • 8:30 a.m. ET: Wholesale Inventories

  • 10:00 a.m. ET: UoM Consumer Sentiment

  • 10:00 a.m. ET: UoM Inflation Expectations

  • 10:30 a.m. ET: NY Fed’s John Williams speaks

  • 11:30 a.m. ET: Minneapolis Fed’s Neel Kashkari speaks

• Quarter-end rebalancing may add choppy flows.

• Markets may remain reactive to headlines before next week’s jobs data.

Volatility and Whale Bias

• Volatility remained high and steady.

• ES 5-day average daily range declined slightly to 101.75 points.

• Overnight large-trader volume was light and mixed.

• No whale bias was identified.

ES Market Structure

• ES continued to work sideways near the middle of its short-term downtrend channel.

• Trendlines did not come into play on Thursday.

• Both bulls and bears still had room to operate within the downtrend channel.

• The tape favored tactical trading rather than strong directional conviction.

50-Day Moving Average

• ES tested the 50-day moving average at 7445.75 for the third consecutive day.

• ES closed below the 50-day MA, which could be bearish.

• The 50-day MA acted as resistance overnight.

• A key question for the session was whether that resistance would continue to hold.

Potential Resistance Levels

• 7615–7610

• 7655–7660

• 7675–7680

• 7990–8005

Potential Support Levels

• 7230–7225