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Are There Normal Weeks Anymore?
Danny Riley
August 26, 2025
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Our View
The ES opened lower, made a low at 6463.75 at 9:43, and slowly traded up to 6482.75 at 12:45. It then made a series of lower highs and traded down to 6453.00 on the 4:00 cash close, settling at 6455.50, down 28.50 points or -0.43% on the day.
In the end, it was a long, slow grind up and back down. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it acted tired. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was only 900k. Coming off the heels of last Friday's big rally and high volume, yesterday was a terribly slow day. I think the ES and NQ need a few days of lower back-and-fill before they start going back up again.
The Next Big Move to Florida
I’ve written about this before — the Covid-19 pandemic changed everything. I gotta say it like it is: I knew in late March of 2020 that when the cold weather gave way to spring in Chicago and the rest of the nation, people would take to the streets — and they did. And guess what? They still are.
I remember flying into Chicago and riding in the back of a yellow cab down North Ave to my house in Old Town. As we passed a large strip mall with several businesses, including a big Best Buy, I saw the entire complex had been looted. The parking lot was filled with burned-out cars and debris. Every business had been completely destroyed.
During the following week, I went to Michigan Ave — the Magnificent Mile — and every store had been boarded up or ransacked. Out of the dust came the street protestors: Black Lives Matter, LGBT groups, anti-lockdown and anti-mandate protesters, coalitions of individuals and organizations opposing restrictions as infringements on civil liberties, and far-right groups like the Proud Boys, Oath Keepers, and Boogaloo Bois. Anyone with something to say was marching — but the more they marched, and the more groups that joined, the more their message became clouded.
Back in Delray Beach, Florida, it was business as usual — large crowds drinking, eating, and partying. By the end of March or early April, I saw moving vans and big car transporters on nearly every street. The great Covid-19 migration had arrived, and it wasn’t stopping.
The average older Florida home cost anywhere from $350k to $400k, and after I picked a few off in my neighborhood, they shot up to $900k to $1 million or more and the new construction boom started. Older homes with pools that had been rehabbed were being bought for $1.5 million to $2 million, and the price of new builds, initially offered at $3 million to $4 million, were being bought well over the asking price.
But as interest rates rose, home sales and prices fell. The hurricanes on Florida’s west coast and high insurance costs began pushing people to consider other areas. Many thought the migration was over and that tourism would drop — especially after Trump tariffed Canada and laid out travel restrictions. Yet Florida reported a record level of travelers and vacationers this summer.
Or did they?
I know in certain parts of the U.S. — especially the west side of Florida — home sales have slowed, but I think they could start booming again on the east side, particularly in West Palm Beach County — Wall Street South.
My guess? A lot of East Coasters, primarily in New York, who didn’t move to Florida will if Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 general election for Mayor of New York City. His plan is to pursue a progressive agenda focused on affordability, including free public transportation, rent freezes, expanded social services, city-owned grocery stores, free childcare, raising taxes on the wealthy, a minimum wage of $30/hr by 2030, building 200,000 new affordable housing units, creating the Department of Community Safety, making NYPD respond to mental health calls, funding anti-hate programs, and he holds a pro-Palestinian stance and criticizes Israel.
When I ask people from New York, “Why don’t you move here?” — 90% say they want to but still have family in the city. I don’t hear that as much anymore, and I don’t think I will in the future.
I love NY and Chicago, but I don’t like what has happened to either city since the Covid-19 pandemic. There are hundreds of great places to go, and the nightlife is the best in the world — but these world-class cities are surrounded by violence and crime.
It’s like an old story I’ve told before, when I got Black Mike off the streets, he warned me about the bad neighborhood I bought my home in. He said they were going to break into my garage. I told Mike I knew they were coming — I just didn’t know when.
Well, that’s how I feel about the next wave of New Yorkers moving here. I doubt mortgage rates will fall very much, but that really doesn’t matter — most new spec homes are paid for in cash.
Our View
I think the markets are going to range trade until Wednesday when NVDA reports after the close. Options traders are pricing in about a $260 billion swing in Nvidia's (NVDA) market value following the chipmaker's second-quarter earnings, expected Wednesday after the close. U.S. options market data shows Nvidia options are implying a roughly 6% swing for the shares in either direction.
This will be followed by the PCE number release on Friday morning.
The 109-point move last Friday has taken the wind out of the sails — but that’s going to be temporary.
Our Lean — Danny’s Trade (Premium only)
MiM and Daily Recap
ES Futures Recap
Intraday Recap
The ES futures session opened the Globex trade Monday evening at 6493.00 and quickly pressed to an early high of 6494.00 at 18:00 ET. Sellers stepped in, dragging the contract lower to 6471.50 by 23:00, a 22.50-point decline. A modest bounce followed into the early morning, reaching 6482.50 at 02:00, but this lower high was met with renewed selling pressure. The overnight trend continued downward, culminating in a session low of 6460.75 at 08:30 ET, marking a 33.25-point slide from the Globex opening print. Globex closed at 6470.00, down 23.00 points or -0.35% from the open or 13.25 (-0.2%) from the cash close.
The regular cash session began at 6470.00, and buyers lifted ES to 6476.75 by 10:00. A minor dip to 6466.75 at 10:45 established a higher low, which was followed by another push to the day’s regular-session peak at 6482.75 at 12:45, a 16-point gain from the previous low. That midday high proved to be the turning point. Sellers regained control in the afternoon, pressing steadily lower into the final hour. By 16:00, the contract tagged a new low at 6453.00, down 29.75 points from the earlier high. ES closed the cash session at 6454.75, down 15.25 points (-0.24%) from the open and 28.50 points (-0.44%) from the prior cash close.
The cleanup session saw a small recovery, with ES bouncing off the 6453.00 low and settling at 6459.50, a modest gain of 4.75 points (+0.07%). On a full-session basis, ES ended down 33.50 points or -0.52% from the prior day’s close. Volume was concentrated in the regular session, with 725,045 contracts traded, while total daily volume reached 899,405 contracts.
Market Tone & Notable Factors
Monday’s trade leaned bearish, with the contract unable to hold early gains in either session. Each rally attempt into resistance—6482.50 overnight and 6482.75 during the day—was met with selling. The persistent lower closes highlight a lack of conviction from buyers heading into the final days of August.
The Market-on-Close (MOC) imbalance data added another layer to the late-day pressure. At 15:50, imbalances showed $2.84 billion to buy, with a strong 90.4% skew toward the buy side in dollar terms and 70.1% of symbols leaning positive. Despite this buy-side tilt, price action failed to sustain upward momentum into the bell, a sign of broader weakness overshadowing imbalances.
Overall, sentiment remained cautious as the ES closed near its session lows. The inability to maintain midday strength and the fade into the close reflect defensive positioning. With the contract finishing down -0.44% cash-to-cash, participants appear reluctant to extend risk ahead of key upcoming catalysts. The tone remains pressured, with support levels near 6450 critical for the next session.
Technical Edge
Fair Values for August 26, 2025:
SP: 14.93
NQ: 62.78
Dow: 65.21
Daily Market Recap 📊
For Monday, August 25, 2025
• NYSE Breadth: 32% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 47% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 46% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 31% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 32% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 32% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 104 / 8
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 185 / 57
• NYSE TRIN: 0.83
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.55
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For Week Ending Friday, August 22, 2025
• NYSE Breadth: 60% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 58% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 59% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 78% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 64% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 69% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 260 / 57
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 490 / 247
• NYSE TRIN: 2.46
• Nasdaq TRIN: 1.33
ES & NQ Levels (Premium only)
Calendars
Economic Calendar
Today
Important Upcoming
Earnings
Trading Room Summaries
Polaris Trading Group Summary - Monday, August 25, 2025
The session opened with high expectations as traders focused on key weekly events, including Core PCE, Durable Goods, and a major spotlight on Nvidia earnings.
Key Trades & Highlights
Crude Oil (@CL) Open Range Long:
TGT 1 and TGT 2 were both successfully filled early in the session.
Stops moved to breakeven after TGT 2—a clean and well-managed trade that set a positive tone for the morning.
Line in the Sand (LIS):
Declared at 6470, which served as a magnet and battleground throughout the session.
The market oscillated around this level in early "sandbox" mode, aligning with D-Value Area behavior.
A4 Strategy Trades:
Morning: One A4 long setup triggered. David noted it was still viable and risk-free, even in choppy price action.
Afternoon: A Bear shift developed during lunch, and A4 short trade was activated with scaling around the 6470 LIS—a key strategic level.
Educational clarity was provided: A4 is ATR-based, not reliant on EMA alignment, which sparked valuable discussion on backtesting and strategy design.
Market-on-Close (MOC):
A $2.1 billion sell imbalance was reported late in the day.
Resulted in a final flush into the closing bell, capping off an otherwise grinding session with some directional momentum.
Lessons & Takeaways
Discipline in Choppy Markets:
Several traders, like Manny, acknowledged the difficulty of the PA and wisely stood aside to preserve capital—a key pro move.
Strategy Clarity:
David reiterated that A4 trades are based solely on ATR-defined zones, not moving averages.
This sparked an informative Q&A on strategy adherence versus adding personal nuance (like EMA filters), highlighting the importance of rigorous backtesting over intuition.
Patience Rewarded:
While the morning and midday were lackluster and “torturous,” the afternoon shift provided solid opportunity for traders who stayed alert.
Overall Tone of the Day
A challenging but educational Monday. The room navigated through slow rhythms with composure. The early CL trade was a win, and late-day setups salvaged the session. David’s ongoing mentorship and strategic insight helped traders stay focused on structure, process, and smart decision-making.
Discovery Trading Group Room Preview – Tuesday, August 26, 2025
S&P 500 pulled back Monday after Friday’s rate-cut rally stalled below all-time highs.
Nvidia earnings tomorrow are key for testing AI-driven market strength.
Trump fired Fed Governor Lisa Cook, citing alleged mortgage fraud; Cook is challenging the dismissal in court.
Elon Musk’s xAI & X sued Apple and OpenAI, claiming their chatbot integration creates an anti-competitive monopoly that sidelines Grok.
Trump met South Korea’s President Lee Jae Myung; tariffs unchanged, but new investments and talks of North Korea cooperation followed.
Earnings Today:
Premarket: Bank of Montreal (BMO), Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS), BEKE
After the bell: MongoDB (MDB), OKTA
Economic Data:
8:30am ET: Durable Goods Orders
9:00am ET: HPI & S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI
10:00am ET: CB Consumer Confidence & Richmond Manufacturing Index
Richmond Fed’s Barkin speaks at 8:30am ET
Volatility eased Monday; ES 5-day average range now 71 points
Whale bias: Bearish into Durable Goods data on heavy overnight volume
Key ES Levels:
Support: 6391/96, 6327/32, 5814/19
Resistance: 6656/61, 6688/93
