9-Week Win Streak to Start 2024

Stats show it hasn't happened often

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Our View

I made several predictions last year and only a few got close. One was that Bitcoin would trade $35,000 and the other was that the ES would drop 20% and then rally 20% — although it rallied more than that. 

When I look back on 2023, there were a few key events that I can't forget. 

First, we had all the Fed rate hikes from 2022 continue into 2023. Second was the regional banking crisis. Third was all the geopolitical turmoil — again, a continuation from 2022. 

I could list a few more, but I don’t want to copy something when I can post JP Morgan's year-end reflections. I get a lot of bank reports, most of which I never read. but this report is one I always look for. 

As for JP Morgan’s 2024 outlook, you can find it here.

In the end, it was a hell of a year for the stock market... let's hope it keeps going in 2024.

Our Lean — Danny’s Trade

This is Danny Riley’s personal trading plan for the day.

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MiM and Daily Recap

ES 15-min recap

The ES traded up to 4841.00 and opened Friday's regular session at 4828.50. After the open, the ES traded up to 4835.00 at 10:09 and then dropped 38.25 points down to 4796.75 at 12:24. Why? Because there was a 'walk away' trade, (which you can read about in the MrTopStep Trading Rules 101). 

This trade had a solid success rate when I was on the floor, but kind of faded over the years. Still though, we have kept it in our trading toolbox. After the low, ES rallied back up to 4815.00 at 1:14 and well before the rally, I put this out IMPRO: Dboy : (1:03:58 PM) : I think 4815-18 could be a sell. 

The ES traded up to the VWAP at 4818.50 at 2:28, pulled back 4 or 5 points, and traded up to 4823.00 at 3:11, and then started down-ticking as the NQ went offered and traded down to 4815.25 at 3:22. It traded back up to 4822.75 and sold off down to 4815.50 as the early imbalance showed over $2 billion to buy. The ES traded 4817.00 as the final 3:50 cash showed $3 billion to buy and dropped down to 4809.00. The ES traded back up to 4822.75 and traded at 4818.00 on the 4:00 cash close. 

In the end, the last trading day of 2023 saw a pick-up in trade as the big institutional accounts stepped up the pace of the end-of-the-year rebalance. In terms of the ES, the weakness in the Nasdaq was the main drag on the S&P. In terms of the ES's overall trade, volume was steady: 120k traded on Globex and 1 million traded on the day session for a total of 1.12 million contracts traded. 

Some color on the walk-away trade (from Friday’s chatroom): 

  • IMPRO : Dboy : (Fri:9:32:24 AM}) : watch out for the walk-away trade

  • IMPRO : PTGDavid : (Fri:9:35:11 AM}) : yes

  • IMPRO : manny : (Fri:9:35:46 AM}) : What is the walk away trade?

  • IMPRO : Dboy : (Fri:9:36:01 AM}) : nq sellers

  • IMPRO : Dboy : (Fri:10:32:44 AM}) : well there is a trade that had great success on the floor, at the end of the quarter / year that we used to do on the floor

  • IMPRO : Dboy : (Fri:10:33:44 AM}) : by 10:30 -11:00 CT all the buying gets used up and you get the walk-away traded (sell off) 

  • IMPRO : Dboy : (Fri:10:34:32 AM}) : sometimes it works and it ends up the highs of the day and others they start to bounce going into 1:00

Technical Edge

  • NYSE Breadth: 28% Upside Volume

  • Nasdaq Breadth: 41% Upside Volume

  • Advance/Decline: 28% Advance

  • VIX: ~12.50

S&P 500 — ES Futures

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Economic Calendar

Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.
Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!

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