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6900 in Sight, Trend Still Your Friend
Danny Riley
September 18, 2025
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Our View
Globex Numbers
Globex High: 6674.50
Globex Low: 6653.75
Globex Volume: 157k
Regular Session Numbers
Open: 6669.00 (-0.01%)
Day High: 6686.50
Day Low: 6611.00
3:50 Imbalance: Buy $1.1 billion
4:00 Cash Close: 6660.25
5:00 Futures Close: 6686.40
Total Volume: Only 494k ESU and 1.648 million ESZ traded (roll is cooked)
$ES Recap
After a 20.75-point Globex trading range, the ES opened the regular session at 6669.00, traded up to 6675.75, then sold off to 6658.25 at 11:03. It bounced to 6665.25 at 11:15, dipped back to 6659.00, and then rallied up to 6662.25. From there, it sold off to a new low of 6650.00 at 12:45, followed by a slow rally to 6660.75 at 1:40.
After a minor pullback, it began to firm around 1:56, just before the 2:00 Fed headlines, and I was wondering if the $4 billion buy on the close is going to be right. The ES spiked to 6686.50 at 2:03, then quickly sold off to 6640.00 by 2:15.
It rallied up to 6674.75 at 2:30 as Powell began speaking and then popped up to 6672.00 at 3:10. After pulling back to 6646.75, it moved higher again, reaching 6675.75 at 3:30. A brief dip to 6659.50 at 3:27 led into a final trade of 6658.50 as the 3:50 imbalance showed $1.1 billion to sell. It traded 6658.75 at the 5:00 futures close, down 8.75 points or -0.18% on the day.
In the end, buyers started showing up in the ES and NQ just before 2:00 and drove prices higher after the Fed headlines. In terms of tone, MrTopStep has a rule called "bus too full"—basically meaning when the public gets too long into a rally and short into a decline, the ES tends to reverse. And that’s what happened, the crowded bus got too short into the decline.
In terms of overall trade, only 494k ESU and 1.648 million ESZs traded—you can do the math.
On Tap
Today, we have a lighter economic schedule with Initial Jobless Claims and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, both at 8:30 ET.
There were so many rotations going on yesterday, it was tough to keep track.
Here’s how things settled:
ES: -0.18%
YM: +0.53%
NQ: -0.23%
RTY: +0.26%
DXY: +0.24%
GLD: -0.77%
Our View
SET refers to the exercise settlement value for A.M.-settled S&P 500 (SPX) index options, or SOQ – Special Opening Quotation.
I was never in love with this trade, but the PitBull used to love trading the SET. He would short the expiring futures on Quad Witching Fridays. I think he liked it because it was a roll-the-dice trade that worked for him a few times, but the average wasn’t great.
That said, according to @HandelStats, who’s been closely tracking the SET/SOQ pattern, there’s a reliable setup—and it has nothing to do with the expiring contract. It’s about SPZ and being short it Friday morning.
Did You Know?
The Special Opening Quotation (SOQ) is calculated from the first traded prices of all S&P 500 stocks on expiration morning. It determines the official settlement value for index contracts.
Since mid-1998:
The S&P 500 has opened higher in 68 of 109 quarterly expirations compared to the prior day’s close.
In September, it opened higher in 19 of the last 27 years.
SOQ Snapshot
Since 1998: Higher in 68 of 109 expirations
September: Higher in 19 of 27 years
See: Pace of the Roll
MiM and Daily Recap
Intraday Recap
The S&P 500 futures (ES) navigated a choppy path on Wednesday, with action shaped by early weakness, midday volatility, and a late push that failed to hold into the settlement. Volume continued to reflect the dominance of the September (Z) contract after the roll, with combined turnover totaling 1.40 million contracts.
Overnight Globex trade opened at 6669.50 and oscillated within a contained range before gradually drifting lower. Prices dipped to 6664.50 at 22:20, marking the first lower low, then extended to 6625.25 by 01:10. A recovery attempt carried ES up to 6673.00 at 03:30, the Globex high, before another pullback reached 6653.75 by 04:40. Buyers stabilized the market near 6659.75 at 07:00, a higher low, before lifting futures back toward the cash open.
The regular session opened at 6669.00, but sellers quickly pressed the tape. By 09:50, ES had rallied briefly to 6675.75, but that high was rejected, and pressure pushed the contract to 6650.00 by 12:40. The markets drifted higher into the 14:00 Fed announcement which initiated an afternoon of volatility. After a sharp bounce into 14:00 that carried ES to the session high at 6686.50, sellers stepped in once more. A swift selloff into 14:50 drove the index to 6611.00, the day’s low, representing a 75.50-point swing from the earlier high. From that low, the contract staged another strong rebound, reaching 6660.25 at the close, down 8.75 points or -0.13% from the open. The cleanup session added a modest bounce, closing at 6665.75. Overall, the full session lost 3.75 points (-0.06%), with the cash-to-cash change showing a net -8.00 points (-0.12%).
Market tone leaned bearish-to-neutral. Sellers were able to press repeated waves lower, with sharp intraday reversals underscoring elevated volatility. The MOC imbalance data showed $968 million to buy at 3:50 PM, with 59% of dollar flow on the buy side. However, symbol imbalances skewed -52.1%, with more names leaning to the sell side, a split that kept the close uneven. Sector flows highlighted strength in Technology and Basic Materials, while Energy, Financials, and Utilities showed heavy sell imbalances. At the single-stock level, AVGO, TSLA, and ORCL posted strong buy imbalances, while heavyweights XOM, NFLX, and CVX faced notable sell pressure.
The session reflected indecision, with bulls unable to sustain rallies despite multiple recovery attempts. While the close was only modestly negative, the day’s wide intraday swings and divergent sector flows underscored a cautious tone ahead of upcoming catalysts. Heading into Thursday, traders will watch to see if the 6611.00 low holds as support or if sellers can force a deeper break below recent ranges.
Dan @ GTC Traders
Profitable. And Boring.
Over the last few months, we've been demonstrating a quantitative program we've developed specifically for GTC traders. We call it “The Quad” ... a system that runs in conjunction with an arbitrage trade model we've set up in the 10-year Treasury derivatives. As the two run in conjunction with one another, we might need to rename this particular package and consolidate it into one program.
But I digress.
The entire setup is designed with one primary goal: linear returns over absolute ones. Sure, there's a way to flip it toward more aggressive absolute returns ... something we'll show premium members of GTC traders in the future. When it is time to do so. But for now, we're focused on steady, predictable performance.
As of todays date ... we're in our fourth consecutive month of profitability with this program. Linear returns ... month after month ... no fireworks, just consistent edges. The Quad scans for specific quantitative, repeatable process across markets, layering them with the 10-year arb to hedge and capture small, repeatable gains.
It's not about the excitement of a home run. It's about base hits that compound over time. As we like to say … understanding the importance of the aggregation of marginal gains.
But here's the key lesson for new and aspiring traders:
Profitable trading can be profoundly boring. You execute the same routine day after day. Check the same parameters each morning. Review the same metrics at the close.
Monday through Friday.
In fact, we’ve been keeping the updates to two posts a day … to sort of stress that very thing to premium members of GT Traders.
It doesn't vary. The Quad's signals trigger on set conditions. The arb adjusts on predefined thresholds. No chasing headlines, no emotional pivots. Until it's time to switch modes for absolute returns. Which, again, is down the road. For now?
This is the grind.
Too often, beginners crave excitement. They hunt the next big rush ... the adrenaline of a volatile swing or a "hot" tip. They imagine trading as a thrill ride, but reality hits when they realize consistency demands discipline over drama. We've seen it time and again: Folks bail on solid systems because they're "too dull." Yet, boring works if it means positive expectancy month after month ... the kind of linear equity curve that outpaces benchmarks without the drawdowns.
Think about it. In our portfolio mandate, we prioritize robustness over flash. The Quad embodies that ... tested across regimes, robust through parameter tweaks, and so it is stable. Paired with the 10-year arb, it smooths volatility while grinding out edges. For premium members, we'll unpack the switch to absolute mode later. Which does not mean making the positions ‘larger’. Just a few little tweeks, here and there.
But right now?
Embrace the boredom
It's the unsung hero of long-term success.
We've said it before: Trading is about longevity, not speed. Patience pays.
Until next time, stay safe ... and trade well. program.
Technical Edge
Fair Values for September 18, 2025
S&P: 59.95
NQ: 250.08
Dow: 361.67
Daily Breadth Data 📊
For Wednesday, September 17, 2025
• NYSE Breadth: 55% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 59% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 58% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 50% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 48% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 49% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 157 / 27
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 354 / 59
• NYSE TRIN: 0.70
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.61
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For the Week Ending Friday, September 12, 2025
• NYSE Breadth: 54% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 64% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 60% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 56% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 59% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 58% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 360 / 71
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 755 / 214
• NYSE TRIN: 1.08
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.77
S&P 500/NQ 100 BTS Trading Levels (Premium Only)
Calendars
Economic Calendar Today
This Week’s High Importance
Earnings:
Released
Trading Room News:
Polaris Trading Group Summary: Wednesday, September 17, 2025
Yesterday was FOMC Wednesday, and the PTG room approached it with heightened awareness, reduced size, and disciplined setups. The day was marked by careful preparation, measured execution, and a strong emphasis on trader psychology and risk management. Here's how it unfolded:
Morning Session (Pre-FOMC Setup & Education)
Opening Playbook:
David noted the Cycle Day 2 dynamics and key levels, particularly 6675 as the Line in the Sand for ES.
Manny identified a "Reclaim Long" setup around ES 6644–6646 with a target zone up to 6676, supported by delta flips and footprint analysis.
Additional support zone was noted around ES 6609–6615, anticipating potential “look below and fail” price action.
CL Trade:
PTGDavid noted a long in Crude Oil at the Open, hitting Target 1 quickly.
Trader Education:
Ram asked about quad witching, prompting David to share a Gamma Guy note (valuable for understanding OPEX flows).
Several participants, including Roy and Slatitude, engaged in RSPR (Reversal Signal Price Reclaim) discussions with real-time chart analysis and questions about VWAP, white dots, and BLT setups.
Manny highlighted P.W.E (Post-Win Euphoria) and SLP (Stop Loss Protocol) – great psychological lessons that resonated with many.
Overall Tone:
Calm and measured with lots of collaborative learning and attention to market structure.
FOMC Event (2:00 PM ET)
FED Outcome:
Fed held steady, but projections showed 50 bps of rate cuts in 2025 and 25 bps in both 2026 and 2027.
Markets reacted with volatility – immediate spike up fulfilled the Bull Scenario Target Zone (6685–6695), followed by a sharp retracement down to 6641 (CD2 lower violation level).
Key Observations:
David emphasized “not my rhythms” post-announcement and chose to sit on hands (SOH) – a vital lesson in restraint on chaotic FOMC days.
Manny scalped with mixed results and reminded everyone that trading environments like these may not align with your edge unless you’ve specifically trained for them.
Humor & Camaraderie:
PTGDavid joked about "tasting nachos" and "Wild Ride Clyde rhythms" while monitoring price action around 6675.
Shared humor and discipline helped maintain a positive and composed room atmosphere.
Afternoon Wrap-Up & MOC
End of Day Price Action:
The 6675 level acted as insect repellent, capping upside momentum.
MOC Buy Imbalance of $1.1B provided a late push, squeezing shorts into the close.
Final Trade Insights:
Roy shared a VWAP-based RSPR long that stopped out – a great example of executing with structure and discipline, even when trades don’t work.
David acknowledged the contribution, reinforcing the value of sharing learning moments with the group.
Final Words:
"You can put on your T-shirt: 'I Survived the FED'"
Back to normal business tomorrow.
Key Wins & Lessons Learned
Positive Trades:
ES reclaim long (outlined by Manny) fulfilled its full upside target.
CL Open Range Long hit its first target early.
Gamma zones and LIS (Line in the Sand) provided excellent guideposts for direction.
Lessons & Reminders:
Half-size on FOMC days.
Stick to your rhythms – if the environment doesn’t match your edge, SOH is a position.
Psychological protocols (PWE & SLP) are just as important as technical setups.
Collaboration and discussion (RSPR, BLT, VWAP) improve everyone's execution and awareness.
Final Thoughts
Wednesday was a textbook example of how to navigate a high-volatility FOMC day safely, smartly, and collaboratively.
“Not every day is for profits, but every day can be a day for process.” – PTG Philosophy
DTG Room Preview – Thursday, September 18, 2025
Morning Brief – Key Market Highlights
Fed Update:
Fed cuts rates by 25bps, first time this year.
Dot plot shows 2 more cuts likely in 2025, targeting 3.5–3.75%.
GDP growth revised higher; inflation and unemployment outlook unchanged.
Powell warns of “two-sided risk” and no clear path forward amid labor strength and inflation concerns.
Market reacts positively; major banks raise S&P 500 targets on strong earnings, AI, and rate optimism.
Stagflation concerns linger: slow growth, sticky inflation, rising unemployment.
Global Trade Shift:
US now imports more from the EU than China (IW study).
EU’s growing leverage may impact future tariff negotiations.
Mercer reports investor shift away from US to Europe and Japan due to trade policy risks, deficit growth, and dollar weakness.
Earnings Watch:
Premarket: Darden Restaurants (DRI), FactSet (FDS).
After-hours: FedEx (FDX), Lennar (LEN).
Economic Calendar (ET):
8:30am – Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.
10:00am – CB Leading Index.
Market Technicals & Volatility:
Volatility rose during Fed day but likely to remain muted as S&P 500 hits new highs.
ES 5-day ADR increased to 48.5 pts.
ES remains mid-uptrend channel; both bulls/bears have space to operate.
🔼 Resistance: 6772/77, 6953/58
🔽 Support: 6640/45, 6550/55
