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Our View

Thursday saw another strong session across the board, driven by a $2B buy imbalance on Wednesday’s close and a hotter-than-expected CPI print (+0.4% MoM, +2.9% YoY – highest since January). The ES rallied up to a new contract high of 6600.00 before settling at 6591.75, +52 pts (+0.80%). NQ closed at 24,006.75, +129 pts (+0.54%), and the YM surged +601 pts (+1.32%) to settle at 46,141.00.

In the end, the ES and NQ both made another round of all-time contract highs as the bonds and Bitcoin traded higher and oil prices fell. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it acted firm during the day session. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was lower at 1.1 million contracts traded.

The only thing I can say is, if you want to know where the S&P is going, follow the money with the MrTopStep imbalance meter that has accumulated $18-$20 billion over 7 of the last 9 sessions.

Today’s lone economic release is Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 am, another inflation number, and the week two Friday options expirations, which could cause some swings.

Our View

I think the ES and NQ are still in buy mode, but things may start to change next week. Despite the upcoming rate cut, inflation is still rising, and you can see it in yesterday’s release of consumer prices. Clearly, this remains the Fed’s quagmire. I’m going to keep it at that. It’s been a long two weeks, and it’s not over yet.

Guest Posts:

Get instant access to our partners’ real-time market data and insights not available anywhere else. Here is last night's Founder’s note getting you ready for today’s market and explaining the constraints in yesterday’s market. - MrTopStep

Founder's Note:

Futures are flat with Michigan at 10AM ET.

6,600 is the major upside level, with layered support into the major support line of 6,550.

We're expecting quite little from SPX today, as it is blanketed with positive gamma. On this point todays straddle is an absolute bottom-basement expectation: $19.2/29bps (ref 6,585 IV 11.8%). We'd not want to be short of such pathetic expectations - but that doesn't mean we want to buy 0DTE options either given the positive gamma dynamic.

We'd wager most traders are bored by this zombie-like dynamic (slow grind up), and so they step out on the risk spectrum into memes like OPEN, WDC - whatever is providing a pump. This was much of what we talked about in our Zombie piece from ~1-month ago: namely SPX RV goes near 6%, pre-FOMC IV's go <8% - but we also thought correlation would really collapse.

So far those first two are on point, but correlation via CBOE COR1M has been somewhat sticky. Yes, its no where near "risk off" highs, but it also well above lows which we tagged the last time equity vol was in the gutter. I think this is an important dynamic to recognize because as FOMC marked rates are likely to drop next week, it presents alternative asset classes to play in (bonds, crypto, etc).

Almost all major sectors are clustered in a similar risk stance: traders favor puts over calls, but IV is still relatively low. Bonds (LQD, TLT, HYG, etc) all have a distinct neutral-to-call bias, as do some similar rate-sensitive plays like XLF, XHB and IWM. This is not really the look of a broad-based bullish equity outlook, which is what we'd need to see COR1M make new lows. Something could of course trigger equity call buyers to change their tune, but if ATH's, ORCL +40%, IV at 6% can't get them started - what will? We find all this rather concerning as we march toward 9/17 VIX exp + FOMC, which should reduce the forces that is driving vol lower.

Get instant access to our partners real-time market data and insights not available anywhere else. Here is last night Founder’s note getting you ready for today’s market and explaining the constraints in yesterday’s market. - MrTopStep

MiM and Daily Recap

The overnight Globex session began at 6535.75 with early strength, lifting the ES to 6548.00 at 19:10, before a pullback to 6539.50 by 20:10. A secondary rally carried prices to 6547.75 at 21:30, but momentum faded and sellers pressed the contract to a deeper low of 6537.25 at 01:10. From there, buyers regained control, staging a measured climb into the European hours, peaking at 6551.25 by 04:10. A brief dip to 6546.25 at 05:40 set the stage for a stronger push, with ES reaching 6562.25 just before the U.S. open. Globex finished at 6557.75, up 18.50 points or 0.28% from its prior cash close.

The regular cash session opened at 6557.75 and quickly extended higher, driving to 6595.00 by 11:30 for a 37.25-point morning rally. A small pullback followed, taking ES down to 6582.75 at 11:45, before another recovery to 6593.75 at 12:20. Consolidation held through midday until bulls made a fresh run to 6600.00 at 15:00, marking the session high. Sellers countered into the final hour, pressing prices to 6590.25 at 16:00.  The cash session closed at 6592.25, up 34.50 points or 0.53% on the day. The cleanup session closed essentially flat at 6591.75. Overall, the full session added 56.00 points, a 0.86% advance, leaving the ES at 6591.75.

From settlement to settlement, the contract gained 53.00 points, or 0.81%, continuing the week’s string of higher closes. Globex volume registered 169,396 contracts, while the cash session was more active with 918,940 traded, bringing the full day to just under 1.1 million.

Market tone tilted bullish for much of the day, as buyers defended pullbacks and consistently pressed to new highs. The intraday rhythm showed steady higher lows into the morning, while afternoon trade featured resilience near the 6590 area despite heavy sell programs into the close.

The Market-on-Close imbalance data pointed negative. At 15:50, the NYSE imbalance showed -$2.015B to sell, with 75% of imbalance dollars on the sell side and 56% of symbols leaning negative. This strong sell skew weighed on late action, capping the earlier rally attempt and nudging prices off the highs into the close. Technology, communication services, and consumer cyclicals were hit hardest, with mega-cap names like Apple (-$330M), Microsoft (-$249M), Alphabet (-$272M), and Amazon (-$173M) driving the weakness. Only a few pockets of strength emerged, led by energy and select industrials.

Overall sentiment remains bullish but cautious. The steady march to new highs underscores ongoing buyer control, yet the outsized MOC sell imbalance revealed supply at higher levels. With ES closing firmly above 6590, the tape signals momentum remains with the bulls, though near-term consolidation may be needed if further supply emerges into the 6600–6620 zone.

How to read the MIM

Technical Edge

Fair Values for September 12, 2025

• SP: 4.59

• NQ: 21.75

• Dow: 21.69

Daily Breadth Data 📊

For Thursday, September 11, 2025

• • NYSE Breadth: 79% Upside Volume
  • Nasdaq Breadth: 79% Upside Volume
  • Total Breadth: 79% Upside Volume
  • NYSE Advance/Decline: 82% Advance
  • Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 74% Advance
  • Total Advance/Decline: 77% Advance
  • NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 244 / 21
  • Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 481 / 54
  • NYSE TRIN: 0.95
  • Nasdaq TRIN: 0.73

Weekly Breadth Data 📈

Week Ending Friday, September 5, 2025

• • NYSE Breadth: 52% Upside Volume
  • Nasdaq Breadth: 57% Upside Volume
  • Total Breadth: 55% Upside Volume
  • NYSE Advance/Decline: 60% Advance
  • Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 51% Advance
  • Total Advance/Decline: 54% Advance
  • NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 274 / 49
  • Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 442 / 264
  • NYSE TRIN: 1.35
  • Nasdaq TRIN: 0.76

Calendars

Economic Calendar Today

This Week’s High Importance

Earnings:

Full Calendars

Trading Room News:

Polaris Trading Group Summary - Thursday, September 11, 2025

A day marked by reflection, technical precision, and powerful trading lessons.

A Day of Remembrance

Throughout the morning, PTGDavid honored the key moments of 9/11 with solemn “moments of reflection.” It was a powerful backdrop to a disciplined trading day, reminding the room of perspective beyond the charts.

Market Overview & Strategy

• Overnight Price Action:
  Markets moved higher overnight, fulfilling the 6555 target from PTG’s Daily Trade Strategy (DTS). PTGDavid confirmed the bull scenario played out with CPI data in-line (Core CPI YoY: 3.1%).

• Opening Range:
  Price reached initial upside targets (6555–6560) quickly post-CPI. David advised not to hunt shorts during the morning’s bullish "grinder rhythm."

• Rithmic Outage:
  Mid-morning tech issues with Rithmic caused some disruption. PTG members collaborated to troubleshoot — switching servers and supporting each other. Great example of room comradery and professionalism.

Highlighted Trades & Lessons

Bosier’s Strong Performance

• Morning Long (9:46 AM):
  Long from 6554, partials at 6558 and 6562, based on a rising 13MA on 15-min chart. Clean execution and trust in the setup.
  ➤ Lesson: Trading bias from past (e.g., 2008 bearish conditioning) can be overcome with structure and rules.

• Midday Short Sequences:
  Multiple well-managed shorts starting from 6587–6592 zones. Tight stops, scaling in/out, adjusting to market rhythm.
  ➤ Lesson: Execute with discipline even when the market feels "wrong" — manage risk actively.

• Afternoon Shorts:
  Bosier executed a sharp set of short scalps in the 2:00–2:20 PM stretch. Small wins, scratches — all while staying nimble in chop.
  ➤ Result: Demonstrated ability to recognize when to push and when to pull back.

Mindset & Execution Wisdom

• From Manny & Others:

  • “Stay in alignment.”

  • “You are not your trade.”

  • “Decision fatigue is real.”

  • “Your edge plays out over groups of trades — not one.”

• From John B:
  A compelling share about staying with the system through a drawdown and coming out stronger.
  ➤ Lesson: Confidence grows when you trust backtesting and accept that not every trade defines your strategy.

Key Technicals & Market Flow

• Cycle Day 1 Target at 6592.50 hit late day.

• Resistance noted near SPX 6570 / ES 6578, later Fib Cluster pulled to 6626.

• MOC Flip: From $2.1B Sell → $1B Buy imbalance — major tape shift late in the day.

• Supercycle Possibility?
  Ram asked if CD1 with no retracement points to a supercycle move. David replied: “Always possible.”

Takeaways & Lessons

• Alignment is King.
  PTGDavid and others repeatedly emphasized the importance of trading in alignment with the broader structure — especially avoiding emotional counter-trend plays.

• Supportive Room Culture.
  Technical issues were met with collaborative problem-solving. Personal stories and mindset reflections reinforced that the PTG room is more than trades — it’s a community.

• Strong Focus on Psychology.
  From staying cool during losses to recognizing decision fatigue and trusting systems — mental discipline was the dominant theme.

Final Thoughts

Solid price targets hit early, followed by a disciplined sideways grind. Bosier's active trades and Manny's psychological insights stood out, while PTGDavid anchored the room with clear strategy and structure.

Lessons in alignment, emotional control, and system trust were front and center — a true PTG-style session.

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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.

Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!!

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