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59 Trading Days to the Midterms — and September’s Knocking on the Door
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The PitBull was talking about the midterm election and September weakness, so I pulled this up. I know there is still a lot to get past in August, but September and the midterm election are closing in fast.
There are 59 trading days until the November 3 midterm elections, starting tomorrow and including Election Day, excluding weekends and the Labor Day market holiday on September 7.
The second year of the presidential cycle—the midterm-election year—has historically been the weakest and most volatile of the four-year cycle. Since 1931, the S&P 500 has produced an average gain of approximately 4.7% during midterm years, about half its average return during the other three years. Midterm years have also experienced deeper corrections, with an average intra-year decline of roughly 18% to 19%.
The most difficult period has traditionally occurred during the second and third quarters, as political uncertainty, tighter fiscal policy, and concerns about a change in congressional control weigh on investor sentiment. That seasonal weakness can extend into September, which has historically been the worst month of the year for the S&P 500. Since 1950, the index has averaged a September decline of approximately 0.7% and finished higher only about 44% of the time.
While there are no guarantees, I think traders should be prepared for increased volatility and some possible large drops. The positive side of the pattern is that midterm-year weakness has frequently created an important market low, followed by a strong rally beginning in the fourth quarter and continuing into the third year of the presidential cycle.
Below are two links to look at:
Our Lean — Danny’s Trade (Premium only)
ESU26 / NQU26 1-Month Chart
The ES traded in a 7778.25 to 7796.00 Globex trading range with low volume of 139k contracts traded and opened Tuesday's regular 9:30 ET regular session at 7791.75, up 13.75 points or +0.18%.
After the open, the ES printed 7792.50, sold off 17.75 points down to 7774.75, rallied up to 7782.50, and sold off 10.75 points down to 7771.75 at 9:45. It then rallied up to 7787.00 and, at 10:00, made a few lower highs before selling off to 7747.75 at 1:15. It rallied 11.25 points up to 7759.00 at 1:45, then sold off 21.00 points down to 7738.00 at 2:15. From there, the ES rallied 18.50 points up to 7756.50 at 3:40 and traded 7749.25 as the cash imbalance showed $3.4 billion to sell. It sold off down to 7743.75 at 3:48 and traded 7749.75 on the 4:00 cash close.
After 4:00, the ES traded up to 7757.75 at 4:30 and settled at 7747.50, down 29.25 points or -0.38%. The NQ settled at 29,626.00, down 111 points or -0.37%, the YM settled at 53,880, down 183 points or -0.34%, and the RTY settled at 3035.50, up 10.50 points or +0.35% on the day.
In the end, fading optimism about the US/Iran deal, higher oil prices, Amazon and Alphabet falling more than 2%, SpaceX dropping roughly 5%, and some risk-off ahead of Wednesday’s July CPI report all weighed on the market.
In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it was sold from the opening gap higher all day long. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was miserable at 948k contracts traded, the second day in a row under 1 million and the lowest since June 12th.
HGU26 / GCU26 10-Day Chart
Gold vs. Copper Over the Last 9 Sessions
The GCU26 (gold futures) has closed higher 6 of the last 9 sessions for a total point gain of 415.3 points or +9.99%. At the same time, copper has also experienced a short squeeze and has been up 6 of the last 9 sessions for a total gain of +0.4680 points, or +7.22%.
Gold has rallied more than 8% in August and recently traded above $4,400 an ounce for the first time in two months. Copper has also surged to a six-month high as global supplies tighten, inventories continue to fall as concerns grow over the Democratic Republic of Congo’s ban on copper-concentrate exports.
But yesterday's trade saw a big metals rotation, with gold and copper futures closing higher while silver, platinum, and palladium pulled back. I think the rush into gold appears to be more of a safe-haven trade, while copper’s rally is being driven by tight supplies and strong industrial demand.
S&P 500 (ES)
****NEW**** PTG Trading Room Recordings
We are now recording the PTG Trading Room Morning Session. These will be “raw” unedited and possibly lengthy. While watching, adjusting the playback speed is recommended. You will be able to find the most recent five (5) session recordings here: Polaris Trading Group Videos
🔄 Transition: Cycle Day 3 → Cycle Day 1
Reset…Reload…Re-engage.
CD3 CYCLE is a distant bragging-rights memory now as it fades into the rearview mirror.
Inventory clears.
Weak hands get rinsed.
Late shorts exhale like they just dodged traffic.
Late longs quietly Google “career alternatives.”
And just like that —
🎬 Cue the bell.
Brand. New. Cycle Day 1.
This is not continuation energy. This is foundation-pouring, blueprint-drawing, steel-beam-installing energy.
Cycle Day 1 doesn’t chase.
Cycle Day 1 builds.
It’s mechanical. It’s calculated. It tests Average Decline Levels with surgical intent. It forces emotional traders to show their cards early — and usually fold by noon.
This is where professionals:
✔️ Let price come to them
✔️ Let structure define bias
✔️ Let risk dictate size
✔️ Let patience do the heavy lifting
No headline chasing.
No social-media-induced FOMO.
No “this feels like” trades.
Just levels.
Structure.
Execution.
Volatility may expand. But so does our edge — because we operate from preparation, not prediction.
PTG doesn’t panic. PTG positions.
Welcome to Cycle Day 1.
Hard hats on.
Blueprints out.
Let’s build.
The Two Pillars of the PTG Trade Plan
1️⃣ Stay Aligned with the Dominant Force
Think current — not prediction.
When price structure establishes a support zone, we don’t argue — we align.
Bias shifts to a long-lean, and we patiently stalk entries via Stackers or the first PB ATR / Discount.
When structure flips?
Same process. Opposite direction.
No emotion.
No hero trades.
Just flow.
Picture a surfer:
You don’t fight the wave — you paddle, position, and let gravity do the work. 🌊
The market rewards traders who ride momentum, not those who try to predict the tide.
2️⃣ Trade Location, Not Emotion
Where you trade matters more than when you trade.
The PTG approach is built on high-probability locations, not impulsive entries.
We focus on:
Support / Resistance Structure
Stacker Zones
Premium vs. Discount
ATR Pullbacks
Liquidity Targets
When price reaches these locations, we engage with purpose — not impulse.
Amateurs chase price.
Professionals wait for price to come to them.
Think like a sniper, not a machine gun. 🎯
Patience builds consistency.
Consistency builds confidence.
Confidence builds longevity.
The Bottom Line
Pillar #1: Trade with the dominant force
Pillar #2: Trade from advantageous location
Master these two principles and everything else becomes execution.
Simple. Structured. Repeatable.
The Toolbox Matters — But the Hand Using It Matters More
The PTG Trader Toolbox isn’t just well-equipped — it’s built for every market condition you’ll encounter.
Yes… even that strange, rarely-used wrench you didn’t know you’d eventually need.
But here’s the truth:
Your edge doesn’t come from using everything.
Your edge comes from mastering the right tools — the ones that align with your plan, your personality, and your execution style.
Inside the PTG Member’s Area, the resources run deep.
Dozens of educational videos.
Real trade breakdowns.
Live market walkthroughs.
Each one designed to compress your learning curve, eliminate guesswork, and help you build confidence through clarity — not noise.
And when the chart starts moving fast…
When volatility rises…
When emotions try to sneak into your decision-making…
PTGDavid is in the room.
Calm.
Focused.
Professional.
Guiding traders through structure.
Grounding decisions in probabilities.
Keeping the community aligned with what actually matters — price, structure, and discipline.
Because in the end…
Tools don’t make traders successful.
Mastery does.
🎯 Cycle Day 1 Focus
Scenarios for today’s trade
🟢 Bull Case — Buyers Stay in Control
Acceptance north of 7760 ±5
Upside objectives:
• 7775
• 7785
• 7795
🔴 Bear Case — Rotation / Reset
Acceptance south of 7760 ±5
Downside objectives:
• 7740
• 7730
• 7720
📊 Key Reference Levels
• PVA High Edge: 7775
• PVA Low Edge: 7743
• Prior POC: 7749
⚠️ Tactical Takeaway
Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.
PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.
— PTG
MOC Recap: Sell Program Reverses Into the Close
The MOC opened with a decisive sell imbalance, showing $2.5B net for sale across all markets. Buy volume stood at $2.2B against $4.7B to sell, producing a -67.6% dollar lean. That crossed the -66.0% threshold and signaled broad institutional selling rather than simple rotation. The S&P 500 was similarly heavy at -68.6%, while Nasdaq was even more aggressive at -71.6%. NYSE, at -64.2%, was bearish but remained just short of wholesale-sell territory. Nasdaq’s -66.0% symbol lean also sat right on the edge of a broad-based sell program, while the all-market symbol lean was a more rotational -60.4%.
Sector pressure was concentrated in growth and economically sensitive groups. Consumer Discretionary carried the strongest major-sector sell lean at -82.5%, followed by Real Estate at -86.8%, Health Care at -80.4%, Information Technology at -73.0%, and Financials at -69.8%. Basic Materials printed -100.0%, although that reading represented only one symbol. Energy was the strongest offset at +64.1%, with Consumer Staples, Communication Services, and Utilities also modestly net positive.
The largest individual sell imbalances included AMZN at $464.6M, MSFT at $290.1M, META at $196.4M, ABBV at $136.3M, NVDA at $134.3M, AAPL at $114.4M, and AVGO at $113.7M. On the buy side, GOOGL led with $208.8M, followed by INTC at $186.8M, CVX at $117.6M, GS at $79.6M, and GEV at $56.8M.
The key feature of the auction was the reversal after the opening wave. The imbalance improved to -$580.0M by 15:54, then flipped to a $1.0B buy imbalance at 15:55 as buy dollars surged to $4.0B. Importantly, the symbol lean remained negative at -53.2%, showing that the rebound was rotational rather than a broad market buy program. That divergence showed large-cap buy demand overpowering a still-mixed broader underlying symbol count. By 15:59, the dollar imbalance reached +$1.1B before settling to just +$139.0M at 16:00.
Daily Market Recap
For Tuesday, August 11, 2026
NYSE Breadth: 54% Upside Volume
Nasdaq Breadth: 64% Upside Volume
Total Breadth: 60% Upside Volume
NYSE Advance/Decline: 52% Advance
Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 56% Advance
Total Advance/Decline: 55% Advance
NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 108 / 93
Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 231 / 104
NYSE TRIN: 0.94
Nasdaq TRIN: 0.72
Weekly Breadth Data
For the week ending Friday, August 7, 2026
NYSE Breadth: 58% Upside Volume
Nasdaq Breadth: 67% Upside Volume
Total Breadth: 64% Upside Volume
NYSE Advance/Decline: 62% Advance
Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 72% Advance
Total Advance/Decline: 69% Advance
NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 312 / 160
Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 669 / 411
NYSE TRIN: 1.18
Nasdaq TRIN: 1.26
ES & NQ Futures trading levels (Premium only)
Polaris Trading Group Summary - Tuesday, August 11, 2026
Tuesday’s session was a good example of why patience matters during slow summer trade. The market began with a constructive overnight setup, spent much of the morning rotating without meaningful momentum, and then finally developed a cleaner bearish move in the afternoon. The best opportunities came from respecting key levels and waiting for price to confirm direction rather than forcing trades.
Overnight and Early Context
Price held the 7775 Line in the Sand overnight.
The 7795 upside target was fulfilled before the regular session.
Cycle Day 3 remained securely above the Cycle Day 1 low, satisfying the Positive 3-Day Cycle statistic of 92.86%.
David noted that August is historically the flattest month, which proved relevant as the morning became slow and rotational.
Morning Trading
David initiated a long during the morning session, but the trade was eventually stopped.
He quickly identified the main issue: there was simply no momentum.
The 7775 area was described as a dense, high-volume zone, helping explain why price struggled to move decisively.
Members still found some positive trades:
A BLT short from 7786.50 worked well.
The first PEMA pullback near 7789 also produced a solid trade.
Several traders recognized that price near POC offered little directional edge.
Patience Was the Main Edge
Much of the morning was characterized by:
Low momentum.
Two-way rotation.
Heavy volume around the key pivot.
Traders positioning ahead of the next morning’s CPI report.
Some members chose to stop trading rather than force setups in poor conditions.
This was a good reminder that preserving capital during low-quality conditions is part of successful trading.
Afternoon Bearish Setup
Late morning, David noted that the A4 Premium setup was playing out.
By lunchtime, his directional lean continued to favor selling as volume thinned.
The key bearish condition was acceptance below the 7775 ±5 pivot.
David’s bearish roadmap called for:
7765
7755
7745
Best Trade of the Day
The bearish script below 7775 ultimately played out very well.
Price worked through the lower objectives and eventually fulfilled the 7745 target.
This completed the downside roadmap outlined in the DTS Briefing.
By late afternoon, the room recognized that the market structure and trade plan had played out cleanly.
Lessons Learned
Do not force momentum when it is not there.
Dense, high-volume areas such as the 7775 Line in the Sand can keep price trapped and rotational for extended periods.
A stopped trade does not invalidate the broader process; David adjusted as conditions changed rather than remaining committed to the earlier long idea.
Acceptance below a key pivot can change the character of the auction, and Tuesday’s move below 7775 was the clearest example.
Slow sessions often reward traders who remain patient enough to wait for the higher-quality move.
With CPI scheduled for Wednesday morning, staying selective and alert was especially important.
Discovery Trading Group Room Preview – Wednesday, August 12, 2026
Market Tone
US equity futures are cautiously constructive ahead of July CPI at 8:30am ET.
Markets are balancing easing gasoline prices against still-sticky core inflation.
Fed commentary continues to keep inflation risks front and center.
Bond yields remain an important risk, particularly for tech and discretionary stocks.
AI & Semiconductor Momentum
AI infrastructure remains a key support for the Nasdaq.
Strength in NVDA, CoreWeave, Supermicro, Samsung and SK Hynix is helping reinforce the AI-capex theme.
Semiconductor momentum will remain an important intraday driver for NQ.
Memory-chip supply constraints could support chip pricing, while creating higher costs for large AI buyers.
ES Technical Picture
ES continues to trade sideways near record highs.
Volatility has contracted for five straight sessions.
The 5-day average ES range has fallen to 55 points.
There is no meaningful overnight whale bias due to light large-trader volume.
Key ES Levels
Resistance: 7829–7834
Support: 7620–7615
50-day MA: 7754 as loose support
Lower supports: 7449–7454, 7313–7308, 7127–7122
Key Catalysts
8:30am ET: July CPI
10:30am ET: Crude Oil Inventories
2:00pm ET: Federal Budget Balance
Geopolitical headlines and President Trump social-media posts remain potential volatility catalysts.
Earnings Watch
After the close: Cisco Systems (CSCO)
Thursday morning: AIT, BN, DDS, TPR and JD.com (JD)
