$4.3 Billion to Buy, and the ES Still Couldn’t Hold the Pop

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Founder's Note:

A rebound in Treasuries brought relief to the stock market. The 10-year yield pulled back from its highest level since 2002. TLT rallied 1.29 points intraday, which is larger than the 0.82 points move priced in by the options market. Oil climbed amid ongoing geopolitical risks, and the dollar continued to strengthen on the day.

Micron rose 3% today following a large beat in last night’s earnings release, with EPS and margins continuing to accelerate. Guidance for 87% growth margin also pointed to robust demand for data center infrastructure, igniting a rally across semiconductors (SMH +2%) and the memory sector (+3%). Semiconductor equipment stocks also rallied following Micron’s print, including AMAT (+4%), KLAC (+3%), and LRCX (+4%).

The iron condor we highlighted in our MU preview article worked well today, as MU traded within its implied move and premium on both the call and put sides decayed.

SPX traded within an 89 bps range and closed at 7,667 (+0.2%). The VIX made a round trip to 17.59 before closing flat on the day, while VVIX rose 3% to close at 92.01.

The SPX 0DTE iron condor around 7,600/7,595 and 7,730/7,735 was the most notable structure of the day. Specifically, the 10K-lot 0DTE put spread supplied positive dealer gamma (purple on the heatmap), helping provide support during the session.

S&P 500 HIRO printed +$11B delta on the day, driven by strong call-buying flows (orange line). More than 70% of the call-buying flow was 0DTE, highlighting the tactical nature of the activity.

SPX fixed-strike vols were mixed on the day. IV for tomorrow’s expiration rose by 1 vol point, while IV across later expirations declined. This suggests traders were adding near-term risk premiums ahead of tomorrow’s NFP report, while longer-dated hedging demand remained muted. Tomorrow’s SPX ATM IV is 16%, implying roughly a 100 bps move.

Outside equities, GLD volatility also caught our attention. GLD dropped 3.5% on Monday amid rising yields and a stronger dollar. GLD IV Rank has reset to 17%, suggesting options are relatively inexpensive compared with levels over the past year.

Call skew has also fallen significantly and now sits below its 30-day range. GLD is currently trading around 383, just above our Key Gamma Strike, while the Call Wall sits near 450. If yields cool and the dollar softens, there may be room for another GLD move higher.

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ES-Z Levels

The bull/bear line for the ES is at 7722.50. ES is trading around 7757.00 in the current Globex session, putting price above that line and giving the overnight setup a bullish bias. Buyers need to defend 7722.50 on pullbacks to keep the recovery intact.

On the upside, the previous session high at 7767.75 is the first hurdle, followed by 7774.75, today’s upper range target. Acceptance above 7774.75 would open the door toward 7823.75, the next marked resistance. The overnight rebound has recovered part of the recent decline, but buyers still need to clear these overhead levels to extend the move.

On the downside, initial marked support is 7724.00, followed by the 7722.50 bull/bear line and 7719.50. Losing that cluster would weaken the bullish setup and put the longer-term bull/bear line at 7705.50 in play. Below there, watch 7672.75 and 7670.25, today’s lower range target. A sustained break below 7670.25 would expose 7621.25.

NQ - Z Levels

The bull/bear line for the NQ is at 30792.50. NQ is trading around 30935.50 in the current Globex session, keeping the bias bullish above that pivot. The overnight candle is extending the prior session’s rebound, but buyers still need to clear overhead resistance.

On the upside, the first target is 31121.25, today’s upper range target, followed by the prior session high at 31151.50. Acceptance above that high would strengthen the recovery and open the door toward 31430.50, the next labeled resistance.

On the downside, the first key support is the 30792.50 bull/bear line, followed by 30760.50 and 30707.00. Losing that area would weaken the rebound and put 30529.25 in play, followed by 30463.75, today’s lower range target. Below that, the longer-term bull/bear line at 30157.50 becomes the next major reference. Buyers retain the advantage while pullbacks hold above 30792.50.

Polaris Trading Group Summary - For Thursday, October 1, 2026

Thursday opened a new Cycle Day 1 and a new trading month with David emphasizing flexibility, discipline, and a reset in mindset. The session developed into a textbook Cycle Day 1: an early selloff found responsive buyers near the Money Box and Cycle Day 1 Violation Level, followed by an afternoon rally back toward the opening range.

Overnight setup

• David noted that the expected average decline at 7709 had been fulfilled during the prior day’s quarter-end MOC selloff.

• Overnight price first rallied to the 7765 upside objective.

• Price then sold back down, retested that area, and found responsive buyers.

• The key Line in the Sand for the session was 7745.

• RTH began near the middle of the recent trading range.

• David’s message was to stay flexible, trade the A-game, and begin the new month committed to the trade plan.

Early market tone

• Steve9 highlighted a large overnight move that retraced roughly 75% of the prior day’s range before returning toward the previous day’s low.

• The room discussed staying aligned with the current market structure rather than developing unnecessary directional bias.

• David framed October as a fresh start and encouraged traders to reset their thinking.

Morning trade opportunity

• Around 10:09 AM, David announced that DLMB longs were in play.

• He reported MB1 being scaled at the DL.

• The plan was a DL entry with the next scale targeted at PL.

Market structure and execution discussion

• Much of the morning focused on how to interpret pivots, chop, directional shifts, and cross-market context.

• David said the bid/ask spread itself was not useful for the type of context being discussed.

• The room emphasized visual pattern recognition and staying aligned with market behavior.

• The broader lesson was to observe behavior objectively rather than predict where price “has to” go.

Trading psychology

• The room spent considerable time discussing the mental side of execution.

• A major theme was doing the analytical work before entering the trade and avoiding constant renegotiation once the position is open.

• Traders discussed how discomfort can cause premature exits even when market structure remains intact.

• Risk should be accepted before entry; if the planned stop feels emotionally unacceptable, size should be reduced or the trade avoided.

• The discussion also emphasized recognizing rising mental fatigue before it begins affecting execution.

• One of the recurring lessons was to react to market information rather than predict it.

Patience in choppy conditions

• The focus remained on recognizing developing patterns and responding when the market provides confirmation.

• Trying to predict exactly when chop ends can encourage overthinking and unnecessary trades.

• Patience and visual recognition were presented as more useful than searching for certainty.

Cycle Day 1 recap

• David’s afternoon recap described the session as a textbook Cycle Day 1.

• The morning selloff found responsive buyers inside the Money Box zone.

• Buyers also responded near the Cycle Day 1 Violation Level at 7675.

• Afternoon buyers became increasingly aggressive.

• Price rallied back into the opening-range zone.

• David characterized the structure as establishing a secure low followed by the initial rally away from that low.

Closing imbalance

• Late in the session, David reported a $4.1 billion MOC buy imbalance.

• That buying flow was consistent with the stronger afternoon tone.

• It also contrasted sharply with the large quarter-end sell imbalance from the previous session.

Key trading lessons

• Start a new session and new month without carrying unnecessary bias from the prior day.

• Let predefined pivots and structure guide execution rather than attempting to predict exact turning points.

• Scale and take profits according to the plan when a setup produces the expected reaction.

• Choppy markets reward patience and pattern recognition more than constant decision-making.

• Cross-market context from NQ, ES, and SPX can help clarify broader behavior.

• Accept risk before entering the trade so normal fluctuations do not trigger emotional exits.

• The session reinforced one of the room’s recurring principles: react, don’t predict.

DTG Room Preview – For Friday, October 2, 2026

Macro Setup

• Markets enter the session with the September Jobs Report as the primary catalyst.

• Traders are focused on whether labor data confirms or challenges the Fed’s higher-for-longer stance.

• LinkedIn estimates suggest the report could come in softer than expected, increasing downside-surprise risk.

• Treasuries have rebounded, but U.S. yields recently reached a 24-year high and posted their worst quarter since 1994.

• ES and YM remain highly sensitive to bond-market moves, with immediate volatility expected around the 8:30 AM ET release.

Fed and Rates

• Fed Governor Jefferson said inflation remains too high but indicated policymakers need more time before adjusting rates.

• Fed Governor Cook warned AI could become a meaningful inflation driver by 2027.

• Most policymakers appear reluctant to hike in October, though bond markets continue to price meaningful tightening risk.

• Rate-sensitive sectors remain vulnerable while yields stay elevated.

Oil and Geopolitics

• Crude is pulling back as Saudi shipments rebound to their highest levels since the war began.

• Iran-related uncertainty continues to support geopolitical risk premiums.

• Mixed supply signals are keeping energy markets choppy.

• Crude remains an important macro driver for ES and RTY, with Iran headlines capable of quickly shifting sentiment.

Dollar, Gold and Bitcoin

• The U.S. dollar remains firm near a two-month high as elevated yields and geopolitical uncertainty support demand.

• Gold is stabilizing as bond yields ease, although real yields remain elevated.

• Bitcoin posted its strongest third quarter since 2017, showing speculative appetite remains intact despite broader macro stress.

• Dollar momentum following the Jobs Report will be an important driver for NQ and ES.

AI and Tech

• AI remains one of the market’s strongest structural themes.

• Anthropic is reportedly targeting an IPO as early as mid-November.

• Amazon is reportedly looking to offload $8 billion of Nvidia chips to investors, highlighting the enormous scale and complexity of AI infrastructure spending.

• The FTC is examining whether major AI labs, including OpenAI and Anthropic, harmed consumers.

• Regulatory and capital-market headlines continue to make megacap tech and NQ especially sensitive to AI newsflow.

Today’s Market Focus

• The September Jobs Report is the primary directional catalyst and should dictate early-session momentum.

• Treasury yields, crude oil, dollar strength, and AI headlines remain the major secondary drivers.

• Sector dispersion remains wide, with AI and megacap technology leading while rate-sensitive and consumer-facing groups lag.

• Whale bias is leaning bullish into the 8:30 AM ET Jobs Report on lighter-than-recent overnight large-trader volume.

Economic Calendar

• 8:30 AM ET: September Jobs Report.

• 10:00 AM ET: Factory Orders.

• 10:00 AM ET: Dallas Fed President Logan speaks.

Earnings

• No corporate earnings of interest are scheduled for today.

ES Volatility and Structure

• The ES 5-day average daily range increased to 74.75 points from Wednesday’s 71.00.

• ES continues to trade within its established 7650–7850 range.

• The former short-term downtrend channel near 7809–7814 remains the primary resistance zone.

• The 7665–7670 trendline is the first notable support area below.

• The relationship between ES and its 50-day moving average has become less clear after another probe and close below the level.

• The 50-day moving average near 7737.50 could act as either loose resistance or support depending on the Jobs Report reaction.

Key ES Levels

• Resistance: 7809–7814, then 7990–7995.

• Support: 7665–7670, 7445–7450, then 7410–7415.

Risk Watch

• The September Jobs Report is the largest scheduled volatility event.

• Iran, Ukraine, and Israel remain key geopolitical risks.

• Fed commentary could quickly shift rate expectations.

• President Trump’s social-media posts remain a potential source of sudden headline-driven volatility.