20 Out of 22: The PitBull’s Bullish Thursday Is Back

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In the IMPRO chat on Monday, I recommended buying NVDA calls on Wednesday, and I put this in the chat yesterday:

IMPRO: Dboy [2:08:03 PM]:
if you were going to buy some NVDA calls for tomorrow today for a Thursday what would you buy?

IMPRO: Dboy [2:08:36 PM]:
u know buy calls today for Thursday expo

IMPRO: Dboy [2:08:47 PM]:
no 0odt

I don’t know if they sell NVDA today, but I have a feeling the stock goes higher today and maybe into Friday. My only concern is the end-of-the-month shenanigans.

The ES traded in a 7670.75 to 7698.50 Globex trading range, with 165k contracts traded, and opened Wednesday’s 9:30 ET regular session at 7678.75, down 12.75 points, or 0.16%.

After the open, the ES traded 7678.50, rallied 12.25 points up to 7690.75, pulled back to 7688.50, and rallied 14.00 points up to 7702.50 at 10:00. It then sold off 22.00 points down to 7680.50 at 10:15, rallied 16.50 points up to 7697.00 at 11:00, and sold off 6.00 points down to 7691.00 at 12:30.

The ES traded 7685.50 at 2:45 and then rallied 20.00 points up to a new day-session high at 7705.50 at 3:00. It pulled back to 7698.25 and traded 7703.50 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $1.6 billion to buy. It sold off down to 7695.00, and traded 7692.00 on the 4:00 cash close.

After 4:00, the ES traded up to 7710.00 and settled at 7690.00, down 2.00 points, or -0.03%; the NQU26 settled at 29,289.50, up 12.75 points, or +0.04%; the YMU26 settled at 53,521, down 124 points, or -0.23%; and the RTYU26 settled at 3010.10, down 4.30 points, or -0.14% on the day.

In the end, it really wasn’t about what happened during the day session; it was all about after NVDA reported earnings and what happened after.

In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it was a choppy, low-volume trade. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was only 920k at 3:40 but ended up at 1.03 million contracts traded.

I had a feeling that all the Nvidia selling got traders to hedge their positions or their option hedges lower during the seven days of lower closes, and that the earnings would be good. They reported a blowout quarter and said that demand for AI chips was getting hotter, reported record sales of $96.2 billion, and said its heavy financial support of AI companies is an “excellent” investment.

I know it didn’t excite the stock, as it closed down 1.59%, but at 6:45 p.m., the ESU was up 47 points, or 0.66%, and the NQ was up 327 points, or 1.12%.

I know my leans have been off sometimes, but you never see me calling out lower prices in the ES. We all know that the NQ has been weak, and that is why I would include the Barchart price history. I know you can see the down day on your chart, but when it’s laid out over three months or six months and you can see all the net changes, it sticks in your mind better.

While I didn’t say it, the ES has basically traded in a 7640 to 7750 range for the last three weeks.

In the big picture, that says two things:

1. The ES was range-bound.

2. It was trading in a big back-and-fill pattern.

Tom Cruise, in the movie Jerry Maguire, had a great comment that has always stuck with me:

“We live in a cynical world, a cynical, cynical world, and we work in a business of tough competitors.”

I have a saying that we live in an ever-evolving world where nothing stays the same. I started saying that as my trading desk in the S&Ps watched the desk volume drop as Globex started. I knew it was adapt or let the desk operation die.

I put the Globex terminals in front of the desk phones and moved the desk down in front of the S&P options, where we did millions and millions of dollars in business.

I can’t predict the future, but if the past is any indicator of the future, I believe the way we buy and sell today will be totally different. I think the next move will be AI charts and execution platforms that speak and talk. If you want to buy a stock, a futures contract, or an option, you call out the ticker, and the chart will appear with all the data you requested. You give your trade idea, and it tells you the probability of it working or another strategy, auto-executes, keeps track of your P&L, and lays out margin scenarios and any other pertinent information related to the trade.

If you view AI through the lens of technology adoption and capability cycles, we are still near the beginning of the learning cycle. I am by no means an expert, but I asked ChatGPT what the future of AI technology will look like, and it gave me this:

1. The Technology Learning Curve (Where Models Are)

• Moving Beyond Chat to Execution: Transitioning from passive text generation to agentic workflows that autonomously break down tasks, write code, run checks, and operate software tools.

• Reasoning Capabilities: Evolving beyond next-token prediction to chain-of-thought logic and self-verification for complex math, coding, and reasoning.

• Physical & Spatial Grounding: Leveraging real-time multimodal processing—video, audio, and spatial data—to connect AI models directly to physical robotics in manufacturing and logistics.

2. The Operational & Enterprise Learning Curve (Where Humans Are)

• Infrastructure & Integration: Updating legacy databases, security frameworks, and enterprise APIs to support non-deterministic AI agents.

• Reliability & Trust: Designing automated safeguards, human-in-the-loop validation, and risk controls to handle probabilistic AI outputs in critical sectors like finance and medicine.

• Workflow Redesign: Moving past simple assistant adoption by actively restructuring team operations and business processes around human-AI collaboration.

As I have always said, these are not our fathers’ markets or charts, nor will they ever be again.

MiM

The MOC opened with a clear buy bias, showing a +$1.6B all-market imbalance. Buy dollars totaled $3.3B against $1.7B of sells, producing a +65.9% dollar lean and +52.7% symbol lean. The S&P 500 was especially strong at +$1.6B with a +67.1% dollar lean, while the NYSE showed +69.4%. Those readings crossed the 66% threshold and signaled genuine wholesale buying rather than simple rotation. Nasdaq was positive as well, but its +61.1% dollar lean was less aggressive.

The buy program strengthened at 15:52, when the total imbalance reached +$2.0B and the dollar lean climbed to +69.7%. From there, however, the flow steadily deteriorated. The imbalance fell to +$1.0B at 15:53, just +$161.0M at 15:54, and flipped to -$289.0M at 15:55. Buying briefly returned through 15:56–15:59, but the market ultimately closed with a -$280.0M sell imbalance and a -62.2% dollar lean, leaving the final print much weaker than the opening indication.

Sector flow showed strong buying in utilities, with a +79.1% dollar lean and +72.2% symbol lean, making it one of the clearest wholesale buys. Financials posted an +80.3% dollar lean, while communication services showed +84.6% in dollars but -55.0% by symbols, pointing to concentrated large-cap buying rather than broad participation. Real estate stood out on the sell side with a -71.4% symbol lean.

At the symbol level, the largest buys included MSFT, GOOGL, V, NVDA, MCK, JPM, TSLA, GOOG, LLY, and XOM. Major sells included AAPL, AMAT, VRTX, ISRG, LIN, BAC, AMD, CSCO, MSTR, ROP, and RTX. Overall, the session began as a strong institutional buy program but transitioned into a far more rotational tape and finished with sellers in control. The key tell was the collapse in breadth and dollar conviction, which erased the wholesale-buy signal by the cross.

How to read the MiM

Daily Breadth Data 📊

For Wednesday, August 26, 2026

• NYSE Breadth: 44% Upside Volume

• Nasdaq Breadth: 43% Upside Volume

• Total Breadth: 44% Upside Volume

• NYSE Advance/Decline: 46% Advance

• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 43% Advance

• Total Advance/Decline: 44% Advance

• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 50 / 33

• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 104 / 103

• NYSE TRIN: 1.08

• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.99

Weekly Breadth Data 📈

For the Week Ending Friday, August 21, 2026

• NYSE Breadth: 49% Upside Volume

• Nasdaq Breadth: 53% Upside Volume

• Total Breadth: 51% Upside Volume

• NYSE Advance/Decline: 38% Advance

• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 41% Advance

• Total Advance/Decline: 40% Advance

• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 202 / 259

• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 473 / 446

• NYSE TRIN: 0.64

• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.62

Today’s Economic Calendar

PTG Room Summary – For Wednesday, August 26, 2026

Wednesday’s session was a relatively controlled and educational trading day, with David emphasizing market structure, disciplined execution, and staying aligned with the prevailing trend ahead of NVIDIA earnings after the close. The room saw several quality trade opportunities while reinforcing the importance of patience, risk management, and using the 89 EMA as a key directional guide.

Market outlook

• David identified the session as Cycle Day 2.

• The Line in the Sand was 7695, which had resisted early attempts to break higher.

• Initial downside targets were 7680, 7670, and 7660.

• Expectations were for a relatively normal session without a major directional move.

• NVIDIA earnings after the close were the primary event risk.

• Options positioning suggested support near 7660 and the possibility of an upside drift toward 7700 if the morning data remained uneventful.

Positive trades

• A Barbara Lopez Trade was successfully taken around 7697.50 near 10:10 AM.

• Another Barbara Lopez Trade was reported around 7692.50 near 11:15 AM.

• The second entry was taken from the base of the relevant candlestick structure, showing the value of entering from a well-defined technical location.

• An A7 Bear setup around 7689 was also identified during the session.

• Traders showed good flexibility by evaluating both long and short opportunities rather than becoming committed to one directional bias.

• Late in the day, bulls gained momentum ahead of NVIDIA earnings.

• David noted the stronger bullish push into the close.

• A $1.7 billion MOC buy imbalance supported the late-session strength.

89 EMA lesson

• The 89 EMA became one of the main teaching points of the day.

• David shared his trading rules surrounding the indicator.

• Traders emphasized that staying on the correct side of the 89 EMA helps keep trades aligned with the prevailing market direction.

• One participant described this as the most important lesson of the session.

• The discussion reinforced a simple approach: use market structure and the 89 EMA to avoid fighting the dominant trend.

Trading structure and probability

• Proper market structure was repeatedly emphasized as a requirement for higher-probability trades.

• Traders discussed how a setup alone is not enough; the surrounding structure must also support the trade.

• The Value Breakout Template provided another framework for identifying and organizing potential setups.

• The room continued to focus on waiting for quality locations rather than chasing price.

Risk management and trade management

• Traders discussed the importance of managing risk dynamically as market conditions change.

• One recurring challenge was learning to give good trades more room to develop.

• Some traders recognized that exiting too quickly can reduce the potential of an otherwise strong setup.

• At the same time, the room emphasized that giving a trade room must still be balanced with disciplined risk control.

• The session reinforced that even excellent setups can fail, so no trade should ever be treated as guaranteed.

Building a playbook

• Several traders discussed building their own trading playbooks.

• The goal is to document repeatable setups, entry criteria, market conditions, and risk parameters.

• A structured playbook can make execution more consistent and reduce emotional decision-making.

• The Value Breakout Template and 89 EMA rules provided useful material for traders to add to their own process.

Key lessons

• Stay aligned with the 89 EMA and dominant market structure.

• Wait for proper structure before entering.

• Trade from defined locations rather than chasing movement.

• Remain flexible between long and short opportunities.

• Give quality trades enough room to work when the structure remains valid.

• Manage risk at all times.

• Build a personal playbook around repeatable, high-probability setups.

• Remember that even the best setups can fail.

DTG Room Preview – For Thursday, August 27, 2026

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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.

Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!