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Our View
Today is the 36th anniversary of the Black Monday, October 19th stock market crash. The attack on the Gaza hospital caused worldwide condemnation and we think the Israeli military incursion is going to cause the war to expand.
This weekend is going to be pivotal and we also think we will continue to see more risk-off type trade. Yes, the earnings have been good, but the Gaza war is overshadowing the good news.
Like I said earlier this week, I’m keeping things short right now. Keep an eye on yields, as the 10-year approaches 5%.
Our Lean — Danny’s Trade
This is Danny Riley’s personal trading plan for the day.
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MiM and Daily Recap
ES Recap
The ES traded down to 4377.25 on Globex and opened Wednesday's regular session at 4382.75. After the open, the ES rallied up to 4388.50 at 9:35, fell into a back-and-fill from 4375.75 to 4383.00 until 10:00 and sold off down to 4372.00. From there, it rallied up to 4388.25, sold off down to a higher low at 4372.50, rallied up to 4392.50 at 10:21 and then sold off down to 4362.25 at 10:56. For the next 25 minutes, the ES back-and-filled in a 4 to 10 point range before rallying up to 4376.50 and then started to drift back down to 4362.00 at 12:03 and then rallied back up to 4375.50.
After the rally, the ES sold off down to 4351.00 at 1:01, rallied up to 4378.75 at 1:15, sold off down to 4343.25 at 3:08 and then sold off down to 4342.00 at 3:45. The ES traded 4334.50 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $1.1 billion to buy and rallied up to 4344.25 at 1:55 and traded 4342.50 on the 4:00 cash close. After 4:00, the ES traded up to 4351.00 and settled at 4347.50 on the 5:00 futures close, down 59.50 points or 1.35% on the day.
In the end, all Hamas/Gaza news and Biden speaking on Israel was a big sell-the-news event. In terms of the ES's overall tone, it was weak. In terms of the ES's overall trade, volume was big: 275k traded on Globex and 1.93 million traded on the day session for a total of 2.205 million contracts traded.
Technical Edge
NYSE Breadth: 17% Upside Volume (!)
Nasdaq Breadth: 31% Upside Volume
Advance/Decline: 50% Advance
VIX: ~$19.25
S&P 500 — ES Futures
Open Positions
Bold are the trades with recent updates.
Italics show means the trade is closed.
Any positions that get down to ¼ or less (AKA runners) are removed from the list below and left up to you to manage. My only suggestion would be break-even (B/E) or better stops.
** = previously mentioned trade setup we are stalking.
Economic Calendar
